Wednesday, June 13, 2012

Severe weather possible Thursday

Warm and humid air will work it's way into Minnesota by Thursday, which will create an unstable air mass for thunderstorm development as a cold front moves through the area during the evening hours.

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Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector (behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front) across the southern two-thirds of Minnesota Thursday night.

NAM_221_2012061300_F48_EHI_3000_M

The veering of winds is much more impressive with this system than the Sunday storm.  The upper, lower, and surface level winds are forecasted to be from the southwest, west, and southwest, respectively.

250 mb:

NAM_221_2012061300_F48_WSPD_250_MB

500 mb:

NAM_221_2012061300_F48_WSPD_500_MB

850 mb:

NAM_221_2012061300_F48_WSPD_850_MB

The wind shear profile seems to be favorable for tornadoes, and surface-based convection is likely.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tornado watch issued during the afternoon hours on Thursday.

NAM_221_2012061300_F48_EHI_1000_M

You will want to keep an eye to the sky if you have Thursday outdoor activities, as this storm will mean business if we get the necessary daytime heating.

RS

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