Looking ahead to April

As March comes to a conclusion, most Minnesotans are left wondering, “what happened to spring?”  This is the 5th snowiest winter season on record with 84.7 inches of snow, and we may add to that in April.  Since the first official day of spring on March 20th, high temperatures have been in the 30’s and 40’s.  If there’s a bright side, it’s that temperatures should begin to climb now that the sun’s angle is increasing.  The average temperature for April is 46.2 degrees.  The bad news: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is indicating temperatures will be below normal across much of the Upper Midwest through the month.

The cold spring weather can be attributed to the weakening La Nina pattern in the Pacific, as discussed by the CPC:

La Niña will continue to have global impacts even as the episode weakens through the Northern Hemisphere Spring. Expected La Niña impacts during March-May 2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Potential impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance of below-average precipitation across much of the southern states and the Central Rockies and Central Plains. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for much of the West Coast and across the northern tier of states (excluding New England). A higher possibility of above-average temperatures is favored for much of the southern half of the contiguous U.S.

The trend is also for a wetter April, which could translate to an overall rainy spring.  This will not help elevate the flooding situation across many of the rivers in the Northern Plains.  Rivers across southern Minnesota experienced a first crest this week, with a second crest expected in mid-to-late April.  Here’s a look at the Minnesota River in Shakopee, where high water levels are being forecasted for the middle of the month:

As for the short term, a potent storm system will move across the northern tier states Sunday into Monday.  The models seem to be indicating that most of the precipitation will fall as rain with maybe a few wet flakes mixed in at times.  The pink line on the map below represents a rough snow/rain line:

As much as an inch of precipitation may be seen from this early week storm.

If this December or January, we could easily be looking at a foot or more of snow. Thankfully, we are past that! I don’t think we’ll be seeing 14 inches of snow to break the all-time snow record. Hopefully, we don’t see periods of heavy rains to accelerate river levels.  Rain is worse than snow for the flooding situation.  While I’m not anticipating a warm and dry spring, I encourage everyone to get out and enjoy the nice days we have.  Over the next three months, they may be few and far between.  With the long winter, many are anxious to go about regular outdoor activities and hobbies.  Based on previous La Nina winters, our summer could turn out to be hot and dry.  Mother Nature always seems to find a balance.

RS

Update on Wednesday snows

The latest NAM forecast guidance is in and it appears the trend for a southerly storm track continues from run to run.  This will bring heavy snow to the Twin Cities metro.

Here is a depiction of the low pressure track through the southern half of Iowa:

The low pressure center will bring cold air in behind it across much of Minnesota to set the stage for significant snow:

Just how much snow?  The NAM is bringing the heaviest snow totals across the northern half of the metro, but the entire metro may see enough snow to plow.  Based on the trend throughout Tuesday for higher snow totals, I’m now projecting the Twin CIties to see anywhere from 6 to 12 inches of snow.  There will be a wide range of snow amounts with this system as the dividing line for heaviest snow bands will setup over or near the Twin Cities.

Update on warnings for the area.  The National Weather Service expanded the Winter Storm Warnings southward to now include Hennepin and Ramsey Counties through Wednesday.  Flood watches still remain over the southern half of the state where river flooding is expected to occur very soon.  Many areas along rivers will be at or near flood stage right now.  Yesterday and today’s rain accelerated water rises.

More to come!

RS

Minnesota River pictures and road closures

Here are some pictures along various parts of the Minnesota River in Shakopee and Bloomington that I shot on Saturday.

River running high:

Geese enjoying themselves in the snow melt at Huber Park in Shakopee:

Ice chunks floating down the river at the Bloomington Ferry Unit of the Minnesota Valley National Wildlife Refuge:

Video of floating ice chunks:

Road closures

For the latest on Carver County road closures, click on this link.  Scott County can be found here.  I anticipate the County Road 101 and 41 river crossings to be closed as early as Tuesday in preparation of water crossing the roadways based on river forecasts.  It appears that both roads could be under water by Wednesday.

Keep it tuned to this blog for the latest flood coverage!

RS

Precipitation update for local flooding situation

Well, I hope you have been able to get outside and enjoy the sun and 50-degree temperatures as of late.  It has definitely brought a smile to my face as winter didn’t want to loosen it’s grip this season.  Get out while it lasts, because our weather appears to be transitioning to a wetter pattern over the next week.  Sunday through Wednesday, we will be dealing with rain, then a storm system moves in from Nebraska, drawing enough cold air for more of the s-word, snow.  Yes, Mother Nature isn’t quite done with winter yet, despite astronomical spring beginning Sunday evening.

Forecast map showing where the precip bands lie Wednesday morning.  The heaviest of the snows, we’re not talking much to begin with, stay north of the I-94 corridor:

So just how much?  The rain that falls before Wednesday will generally be on the light side with amounts less than a half inch.  As the rain transitions to snow on Wednesday, there may be a brief period of freezing rain.  The GFS is hinting at the snow to arrive before noon on Wednesday, in which we could expect a couple inches.  The forecast models become a little more unreliable with the seasonal transitions, so I don’t have a a lot of confidence in the totals or the start and stop times.

This will have an impact on the flooding situation, and unfortunately the bulk of the precipitation may fall in the Red River basin, which doesn’t need any more rain or snow.  The next few weeks will be a challenge attempting to keep flood waters out as sandbagging efforts start and road closures become more numerous.  I’m attempting to keep this in perspective with what the people of Japan are going through.  This is more of a minor inconvenience for what we have to deal with.

Stay tuned for more updates.

RS

Flood warning summary

Flood warnings were posted Friday for the following locations until further notice...

COTTONWOOD RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND NICOLLET COUNTIES

MINNESOTA RIVER AT MONTEVIDEO AFFECTING CHIPPEWA...LAC QUI PARLE...RENVILLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES

MINNESOTA RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND NICOLLET COUNTIES

MINNESOTA RIVER AT HENDERSON AFFECTING LE SUEUR...SCOTT AND SIBLEY COUNTIES

MINNESOTA RIVER NEAR JORDAN AFFECTING CARVER AND SCOTT COUNTIES

MINNESOTA RIVER AT SHAKOPEE AFFECTING CARVER...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT COUNTIES

REDWOOD RIVER NEAR REDWOOD FALLS AFFECTING REDWOOD COUNTY

MINNESOTA RIVER AT GRANITE FALLS AFFECTING CHIPPEWA...RENVILLE AND YELLOW MEDICINE COUNTIES

MINNESOTA RIVER AT MANKATO AFFECTING BLUE EARTH AND NICOLLET COUNTIES

MINNESOTA RIVER AT SAVAGE AFFECTING DAKOTA...HENNEPIN AND SCOTT COUNTIES

SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER AFFECTING CARVER COUNTY

SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER AT DELANO AFFECTING WRIGHT COUNTY

CROW RIVER AT ROCKFORD AFFECTING HENNEPIN AND WRIGHT COUNTIES

MISSISSIPPI RIVER AT ST PAUL AFFECTING DAKOTA...RAMSEY AND WASHINGTON COUNTIES

Stay tuned for further updates.

RS

Flood watches now posted

Flood watches are now posted for a few local rivers: Redwood, Cottonwood, and Crow.

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1215 PM CDT WED MAR 16 2011

...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN MINNESOTA...

REDWOOD RIVER NEAR REDWOOD FALLS AFFECTING REDWOOD COUNTY
COTTONWOOD RIVER AT NEW ULM AFFECTING BLUE EARTH...BROWN AND
NICOLLET COUNTIES
SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER AFFECTING CARVER COUNTY
SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER AT DELANO AFFECTING WRIGHT COUNTY

* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE COTTONWOOD RIVER AT NEW ULM
* FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:00 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 6.1 FEET.
* MAJOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER BELOW MAYER
* FROM SATURDAY EVENING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 5.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 11.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY SATURDAY EVENING.

* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE SOUTH FORK CROW RIVER AT DELANO
* FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 9.1 FEET.
* MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 16.5 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING.

* FLOOD WATCH FOR
  THE REDWOOD RIVER NEAR REDWOOD FALLS
* FROM SATURDAY MORNING UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.
* AT 11:30 AM WEDNESDAY THE STAGE WAS 3.9 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 6.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...FLOOD STAGE MAY BE REACHED BY SATURDAY MORNING.

Stay tuned for further updates as river forecasts are updated, and additional watches are expected.

RS

Flooding update from National Weather Service

The National Weather Service in Chanhassen issued it’s latest Hydrologic Outlook for the rivers of Minnesota.  It expects flood watches and warnings to be issued by mid-week with snow melt and forecasted precipitation over the next couple weeks.  This is a sign that flood season is upon us, and for over the next month or so, will be a major story across the Upper Midwest.

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 549 PM CDT SUN MAR 13 2011

...WARM TEMPERATURES THIS WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE MELTING AND POTENTIALLY LEAD TO RIVER FLOODING AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND...

A CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MINNESOTA AS WELL AS WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY INTO WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER AND MID 40S ON TUESDAY AND IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HIGHS ON FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...BUT STILL IN THE MID 30S IN WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER AND MID 40S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

LOWS WEDNESDAY MORNING ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 20S WHICH WILL HELP SLOW THE MELTING PROCESS FROM TUESDAY. BUT FOR OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING...TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED TO DROP BELOW FREEZING ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA. PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL ONLY DROP TO AROUND 40 DEGREES. LOWS FRIDAY MORNING WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S IN CENTRAL MINNESOTA TO THE LOWER 30S IN SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA. LOWS IN WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S. HENCE THE MELTING PROCESS WILL CONTINUE FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. SO A GOOD 36 HOURS OF STRAIGHT MELTING IS LIKELY.

WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT A COUPLE OF CHANCES OF LIGHT RAIN IN THE NEXT 7 TO 10 DAYS. THE FIRST CHANCE WILL BE ON TUESDAY. AT THIS TIME THE SYSTEM DOES NOT TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO FOR A MOISTURE SOURCE...SO PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT AND AROUND A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY. AS WITH THE TUESDAY SYSTEM PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ALSO LOOK LIGHT. WE ARE WATCHING ANOTHER STRONGER STORM SYSTEM FOR LATE NEXT WEEKEND AND INTO PART OF NEXT WEEK. THIS ONE MAY BE ABLE TO TAP INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THIS SYSTEM IS STILL AT LEAST 7 DAYS OUT IN THE FORECAST SO PATTERNS MAY CHANGE BUT IT IS WORTH WATCHING FOR A RAIN EVENT.

THE WARMING TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN MELTING THE SNOW. AT THIS POINT...WE ARE EXPECTING RISES IN THE MAIN STEM RIVERS BEGINNING...INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK. HOW WARM WE ACTUALLY GET DURING THE DAY...AND HOW WARM WE REMAIN OVERNIGHT AS WELL AS OUR MOISTURE LEVELS AND WINDS...WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS FOR THE MELT.

AT THIS POINT WE COULD SEE SIGNIFICANT RISES ESPECIALLY FOR THE COTTONWOOD...REDWOOD...MINNESOTA...CROW AND MISSISSIPPI FOR ST PAUL AND DOWNSTREAM...AND THE ST CROIX RIVER BASINS OVER THE NEXT FIVE TO TEN DAYS. FOR THESE RIVER BASINS...WE COULD POSSIBLY SEE FLOOD STAGE LEVELS AS EARLY AS NEXT WEEKEND.

FOR THE LONG PRAIRE...SAUK...THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FOR MINNEAPOLIS AND UPSTREAM...EAU CLAIRE AND CHIPPEWA RIVER IN WISCONSIN BASINS...WE ARE LOOKING FOR RISES BUT AT THIS POINT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW FLOOD STAGE FOR THE NEXT WEEK.

AS CONFIDENCE INCREASES ON THE MELT AND IMPACTS ON THE RIVERS...RIVER FLOOD WATCHES AND...OR WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY WEDNESDAY.

PLEASE REFERENCE THE NWS TWIN CITIES RIVER WEBSITE AT WWW.WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS2/INDEX.PHP?WFO=MPX

Remainder of March: Warm and wet

The rest of March is looking to be mild according to the GFS forecast models, with below freezing high temperatures largely behind us.  We may even see a shot at 50-degree temperatures by mid-week, which will feel very nice for all us after this winter we have been through.  As the temperatures warm up, I’m concerned with the severity of the flooding situation as we may see a couple “waves” of precipitation during the latter half of the month.  Each wave may bring around three quarters to an inch of rain, with perhaps some snow mixed in.  The first weather system may arrive Sunday, March 20th, and last through Tuesday, March 22th.  The second system is advertised as arriving Thursday, March 24th, and lasting through Sunday, March 27th.  There may be some change over to snow as the second system moves out of the area as temps drop below freezing.

GFS showing .86 inches of precipitation (in green) between March 20 and March 22:

GFS showing .99 inches of precipitation between March 20 and March 22:

For people in flood prone areas, this is a situation that needs to be monitored closely.  Forecasts can and do change this far out, but with record or near-record flood levels being projected across much of the region, this is nothing to take lightly.

RS

First March snowstorm and local flooding impacts

I haven’t blogged much lately - trying to avoid thinking winter as much as I can, but with all the attention that this upcoming snowstorm is receiving, along with the flooding potential this spring, I felt it was necessary to post an entry.

First March 2011 snowstorm: About five days ago, a strong storm system was being advertised on the GFS forecast models for the March 8th-9th timeframe.  I know what you’re thinking, “That’s so far out, how can we believe it?”  Well, one of the things I picked up on was the very high preliminary snow totals, indicating the strength of the system.  At the start, the GFS was indicating over a foot of snow.  You don’t see that very often at the onset.  Yes, the totals fluctuate and tend to work DOWNWARD rather than trend upward.  The question then becomes of the storm track.  If the low pressure center tracks in a northern direction, it brings warm air with it and increases the rain/snow mix chances.  If it says south, but not too far south and miss completely, we get the cold air that wraps back around the low to produce snow.  For the last 5 days, it appeared MSP would take a direct hit from this weather system, but the latest trend is that the storm track will pass just north of St. Louis to around the Chicago area – just brushing southern Minnesota.

Here is the surface map around midnight Wednesday:

Snow totals have been reduced dramatically and now indications are that 2 – 4 inches of snow may fall:

Spring flooding: The new spring flooding outlooks have been released by that National Weather Service, and the forecast for major flooding has increased from the last forecast issued at many locations along the Minnesota and Mississippi Rivers.  Generally, many locations have a 90% chance or better at reaching major flood stage, including the Red River Valley of the Fargo-Moorhead area.  The year 1965 is being thrown out there as a comparison to the severity of the 2011 flooding will bring.  Closer to home, here are my comments that I posted on a spring weather discussion at the Shakopee Valley News website regarding the flooding situation for Shakopee (along with my old snow forecast for early next week!):

My current thinking is that there is a 50/50 chance of flooding reaching 1965 levels. I believe the NWS has the number at 40% as of 3/3/11. We may see an additional six inches of snow or more Tuesday into Wednesday. I also think we will see a sharp transition from winter to spring conditions towards the later half of March resulting in a rapid snow melt. The ground is also very saturated from last fall's precipitation with snow cover preventing deep frost penetration into the soil. Once the ground thaws, this moisture will runoff into rivers and streams.

I completely expect flooding to be of historic/epic proportions. If you have no flood insurance, you need it ASAP. This will be nothing to sneeze at.

La Nina winters have a tendency to bring more snow during early March than normal, which will not help with flooding.  I also believe we will see a quick changeover to spring-like weather towards the end of March into April as the cold air is not willing to let go coming into March. Water-snow content is a large reason why flooding is receiving the attention it is.  There is still well over a foot of snow in many parts of southwest Minnesota, and in some cases 20 inches!  This equates to roughly 10 to 20 inches of water in the snow in close proximity to the Minnesota River basin:

When melting begins this will run off into the river and flow upstream towards the Twin Cities.  Any weather impacts over southern MN will have a role in the flooding situation in and around the Twin Cities metro.  This is a situation that needs to be monitored closely.  I can’t recommend enough to purchase flood insurance, if you live near one of these rivers.  Even larger creeks such as Minnehaha and Nine Mile may see water flow above the banks, which residents need to watch.  It’s shaping up to be a historic flood event.  Stay tuned!

One plug: Follow my Facebook blog page for weather updates as they are warranted, and receive notifications on new posts.

RS