Why multi-tiered tornado warnings are a bad idea

Recently Paul Douglas wrote a column at the Huffington Post regarding the need for different classifications of tornado warnings to cut down on false alarms.  He proposed "Tornado Alert" and "Tornado Emergency" based on the threat level of the current weather situation.  Under his system, a Tornado Alert would be issued when environmental conditions are favorable for tornado development.  When a confirmed tornado is on the ground as reported by spotters, storm chasers, law enforcement, or National Weather Service Doppler radar, a Tornado Emergency would be issued.

The National Weather Service is experimenting with a similar system across portions of the Midwest.

As of April 2, 2012, three levels of tornado warnings are being tested to heighten awareness of the severity of the storm.  This is referred to as an “Impact Based Warning” system.

• An "ordinary" tornado warning
• "Particularly dangerous situation”
• "Tornado Emergency”

Example of a NWS tornado warning with the enhanced wording:

THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION.

HAZARD...DEADLY TORNADO.

SOURCE... EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT CONFIRMED LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE TORNADO

IMPACT... COMPLETE DESTRUCTION OF ENTIRE NEIGHBORHOODS IS LIKELY. MANY WELL-BUILT HOMES AND BUSINESSES WILL BE COMPLETELY SWEPT FROM THEIR FOUNDATIONS. DEBRIS WILL BLOCK MOST ROADWAYS. MASS DEVASTATIONS IS HIGHLY LIKELY, MAKING THE AREA UNRECOGNIZABLE TO SURVIVORS. TORNADO MAY BE UN-SURVIVABLE IF SHELTER IS NOT SOUGHT BELOW GROUND LEVEL.

The warning will also be tagged with the appropriate tornado threat level at the end of the warning text to illustrate the magnitude of the event.

I believe that a system similar to the what the National Weather Service is testing, with a few tweaks, would be most effective at communicating the severity of tornadic events.  With a tornado warning false alarm rate of 76 percent, according to the National Severe Storms Lab in Norman, Oklahoma, the public is already skeptical about heeding an alert.  This alarmingly high statistic is why I understand Douglas’ call for revamping the tornado warning system.

Here are the issues I have with multiple tiers of tornado warnings:

1. It will be more terminology for the general public to understand.  Sure any meteorologist or weather enthusiast will know the difference, but we need to put ourselves in the shoes of the public.  I prefer to keep things simple (the KISS principle).  Added complexity to a situation that requires quick decision-making and action could be the difference between life and death.  We still have confusion over weather watches and warnings, which have been around for almost 50 years.  A recent study conducted at the University of Oklahoma tested the weather knowledge of 762 Texans, Oklahomans, and Californians.  It found 36 percent of respondents did not know the difference between a severe weather watch and severe weather warning.  That is too high of a number.  Adding layers of different tornado warnings on top of that would be ineffective in my opinion.
   
   
2. New dual-polarization radar currently being installed across the country will able to detect non-weather echoes better.  This means debris from tornadoes will be more visible on radar.  This technological upgrade will help cut into the false alarm rate over time with increased meteorological skill.  I would like to see how dual-pol performs before going through a major change of the tornado warning system.
   
   
3. Timing.  Strong rotation on radar (“a tight velocity couplet”) is a pretty good indicator that a tornado may occur at any time.  Under Douglas’ scenario, this would be a Tornado Alert, which may not be taken seriously by the public due to the low-end nature of the tornado alert.  Images from National Weather Service radar are not instantaneous – scans are several minutes apart.  With a quick moving storm, a tornado could drop out of the sky, and cause considerable damage before the message can be relied to the National Weather Service for upgrading the threat level to a Tornado Emergency.  By this time, it is already too late.  Minutes earlier, the radar was already providing a pretty good clue that something was up.

How would I change the tornado warning process for saving lives?  First of all, I would stay with just the tornado warning.  What needs to be improved upon is empathizing the reasoning for the warning.  I would use the tornado tags of the experimental warning program as part of the warning announcement:  “Tornado warning – radar indicated a possible tornado…”.  “Tornado warning – a tornado as been observed in/at [location XYZ]”.  This kind of communication will allow the public to make a more informed decision on seeking shelter.  Ultimately, citizens are responsible for paying attention to what is going on around them, and their own safety.  I’m also in favor of the enhanced wording such as “COMPLETE DESTRUCTION” and “UN-SURVIVABLE” in the warning text to get the point across.  At times, this language is necessary to convey the type of impact the storm will have in an area:  “Tornado warning – catastrophic damage from a tornado was reported 10 miles west of [location ABC].  Complete destruction of [location ABC] is possible.”  Would that not be an immediate call to action?

Science is not at the point yet where it can determine which storms will produce tornadoes.  Research is conducted every year to find this answer.  What we can do until then is better communicate the weather situation – using words that match the impact, and telling the audience why the warning was issued.

RS

Smartphone Weather Swiss Army Knife

Disclaimer: The author of this blog entry is not affiliated with any of the mobile applications presented, nor is the author compensated on any sales commission.

This blog entry will focus on the best weather apps available for mobile devices.  Often I get asked which weather apps I use on my phone.  With technological advances in the information age, it is easier than ever to be aware of developing weather situations.  As severe thunderstorm season is just around the corner, it is important to have the necessary weather tools to keep you safe.  My goal is to eliminate or minimize “there was no warning” comments from the public during the aftermath of a storm.  Outdoor warning sirens were meant to be heard OUTDOORS only.  Improved home construction has deadened the audible level of sirens inside.  Everyone should have multiple sources for obtaining weather alerts and information.

 

RadarScope (v1.8.1)

On the iOS platform, RadarScope from Base Velocity is my favorite weather radar application.  This app is geared towards the advanced weather enthusiast, and meteorologist who is able to interpret radar products such as base velocity, storm relative velocity, and vertically integrated liquid, in addition to base reflectivity (standard precipitation image).  For novice enthusiasts and general public, I recommend the radar found in the iMap Weather Radio app (more details later).

For $9.99 at the iTunes Store (iOS) or Google Play (Android) market, RadarScope gives you access to over 150 NEXRAD sites across the United States, Guam and Puerto Rico, including secondary “terminal” radars in larger cities, right in the palm of your hand.  It outputs raw Level III radar data for a high level of detail.  What this app does not do (perhaps due to the time and data necessary to load such a feature) is the ability to display a mosaic across the country.  Currently, only one radar site may be selected at a time.

What gives this app an advantage over NOAA National Weather Service radar websites is the ability to interact by zooming in and out of a location to get a better understanding of at current conditions.

RadarScope also includes polygon placement for weather warnings, so you can quickly identify if your area is effected by using the phone’s built-in GPS to pinpoint your location, displayed by a blue crosshair (not displayed in this example).  All current warnings issued by National Weather Service offices are displayed by selecting the red icon (number of warnings indicated) in the upper right hand portion of the screen. Tapping the warning polygon will display a text balloon indicating the warning type, minutes remaining until expiration, and the ability to see the warning text by selected the right arrow enclosed in the small blue circle.

The warning text is displayed in a full screen from the National Weather Service.

Another component of RadarScope is cell tracking.  When this feature is enabled in the options, a white line appears indicating the direction of the storm cell.  Tracking also plots hash marks at 15 minute intervals from the starting point noted by a square.

For the spotters and chasers out there, this app features Spotter Network integration for tracking your position (red dots) when storm spotting or chasing to check your position relative to the storm, or see who else is out in the field.

For an additional $10/month, weather watches, storm reports, lightning, and Storm Prediction Center thunderstorm outlook data can be displayed on RadarScope through a subscription from AllisonHouse.  As a storm chaser and spotter, I have found this additional subscription useful for tracking storms before I decide to spot/chase or for days where I am the armchair spotter/chaser.  My primary reason for subscribing to AllisonHouse was for the GRLevel3 radar software I own, which offers additional benefits that supported mobile apps do not yet include.

I have been using this app for about a year now, and I have found it to be intuitive to navigate.  For an application that is focused on radar, it does the job really well, and is worthy of recommendation.  RadarScope was the first mobile app to offer dual-polarization radar, an upgrade being implemented across the United States to better define characteristics inside a particular thunderstorm.  RadarScope is stable in operation, and developers have added new features through occasional updates since the initial release.  Bugs and other issues are addressed in each update to enhance performance. The app just received an update to v1.8.1 in March.

 

PYKL3 (v2.3.1)

PYKL3 from PYK Consulting is a radar application exclusive to the Android mobile platform, and sold at Google Play for $9.99.  Like RadarScope, PYKL3 is geared towards the advanced weather enthusiast, and meteorologist.  PYKL3 and RadarScope are similar in many ways, PYKL3 features all NEXRAD sites, sans terminal Doppler radar.  Spotter Network support is offered, and plots the location of active users.

While PYKL3 and RadarScope share some features, they also have some differences.  What sets PYKL3 apart is the customization for the user. Cities, highways, and individual types of weather warning polygons can be turned on/off.  Additional options include the ability to display primary and secondary roads, mosaic radar from across the country, and satellite imagery using a simple gesture.  With the latest version, it features surface observation plots as an option.

Warning polygons appear on screen (if selected to display in the options) and a long press over the polygon brings up the warning text from the National Weather Service.

This app also has the ability to search through National Weather Service issued text products.  If you are looking for a particular severe thunderstorm warning or hazardous weather outlook, it all can be found in the options.

While I appreciate how customizable PYKL3 is, I am giving the nod to RadarScope for it’s easy to use interface, and screen layout.  The learning curve was a little greater for PYKL3, but it was not overbearing by any means.  I had a better user experience with RadarScope, as I found myself enjoying what was being displayed on-screen.  With PYKL3, I felt I was digging through menus more, and spending less time looking at radar images.

Those with limited data plans may also run into issues with using all of the advanced features offered by PYKL3.  With that said, this is a powerful radar, and despite some of the shortcomings I had with it, I do recommend it.  Any hardcore weather enthusiast should have either RadarScope or PYKL3 on their mobile device.  The app just received a major update to v2.3 in March to a warm reception from users overall.

 

iMap Weather Radio (v2.0)

iMap Weather Radio from Weather Decision Technologies is an essential app for when you are away from a television or radio to receive weather-related alerts.  This is currently an iOS only application (an Android version is in the works), and sells for $9.99 in the iTunes Store.  After hearing some of the issues that plagued the first version of this app, including an accelerated drain on battery life, I declined to purchase it until the issues were resolved. With the new version of iMap Weather Radio released on March 3, 2012 to initial positive reviews, I took the plunge and purchased this app, and I’m sure glad I did.

Below is a pretty good overview video of the capabilities with this app.  It also demonstrates what happens when an alert is received in real time.

 

This app allows you track weather alerts for up to five locations at once, in addition to your current location as established by the device’s GPS.  Another nice feature is being able to adjust the accuracy of background GPS tracking using a slider to find a happy medium between accuracy and battery life.

Alerts are completely customizable and can be toggled on/off in the settings menu.  Virtually every kind of weather event is present as an option, from fires to floods to tornadoes.

This app also features a basic radar on top of a Google Map display.  While not as sophisticated as radar found in RadarScope or PYKL3, it provides enough information for the novice weather enthusiast to understand the weather situation with heavier storms depicted by darker colors.  This radar also differentiates between rain and snow using algorithms.  I found this to be a nice supplement to the primary weather radio function.

Various weather and climate-related alert overlays can be turned on from the button at the bottom of the screen.  If a particular alert is in effect, a polygon is overlaid on top of the radar display.

Active alerts can be viewed from the menu screen by tapping “Current Location”.  The number of alerts are enclosed within the red or yellow badge to the right.

All active alerts are displayed and audible playback of each alert is available by tapping the play button on the left side of the screen.  The text from the National Weather Service alert is then played.  If you would rather see the the alert text than to have it read for you, tapping the right arrow will being up a text box and a visual overlay of the alert on a map to get a quick glance at the locations included in the alert.

When a severe thunderstorm warning was issued in the county I live in, I received audible and visual notification.  I was provided with the opportunity to listen for more information or to read the warning text.  The only requirement for audible alerts is that the device must be unmuted.  Otherwise, iMap Weather Radio works as advertised.

Of the three essential apps presented here, iMap Weather Radio should be first purchase priority.  It has the potential of being a life-saving device, providing real-time alerts as they are issued by the National Weather Service.  For weather enthusiasts, either RadarScope or PYKL3 are the recommended radar apps of choice.

Availability:

	iOS	Android
iMap Weather Radio	Yes	No (in development)
RadarScope	Yes	Yes
PYKL3	No	Yes

RS

Cover those plants!

The National Weather Service has issued a Freeze Warning for locations noted on the map below from 1 a.m. through 10 a.m. Tuesday.  Temperatures will dip into the 20s statewide overnight.  Delicate vegetation should be covered.

RS

From fire to freeze weather

Over a span of a few days, our weather will turn from mild and dry to chilly as temperatures Tuesday morning drop below freezing across much of the state.  Around the Twin Cities, I do think some spots will see temps below 32 degrees at times.  Seems like I have been talking about everything but storms lately.  Then again, it is still early April despite the warm climate pattern.

A Freeze Watch has been issued by the National Weather Service from 1 AM to 10 AM Tuesday for the counties noted below.

Why is this happening?  The jet stream will dip a bit south from Canada and pull in a strong northwest flow of Arctic air.

Both the European and NAM models are calling for temps below 30 degrees.  The downtown areas of Minneapolis and St. Paul may be close to the freezing point.

By the end of the week, a warm up takes place and the threat for frost and freeze in the Twin Cities for the week will be gone.

RS

Elevated fire danger over the weekend

Today we will see the chances for showers all day.  Speaking of which, when was the last time a Saturday or Sunday has been wet during the daytime?

A fire danger threat exist all weekend as relative humidity levels drop to the 25 percent or lower range to trigger a Red Flag Warning.  A Red Flag Warning is effect for western Minnesota today.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM CDT THIS EVENING. THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* WINDS...BY NOON WEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...25 PERCENT OR LOWER THIS AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...STRONG WINDS AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING WHICH COULD CAUSE FIRES TO GROW QUICKLY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...AND DRY FUELS WILL CREATE EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH POTENTIAL.

Meanwhile, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources indicates fire danger to be between high and extreme across the state.  Much of western and southwestern Minnesota falls under the extreme category.

According to the DNR, extreme fire danger is:

The fire situation is explosive and can result in extensive property damage. Fires under extreme conditions start quickly, spread furiously, and burn intensely. All fires are potentially serious. Development into high-intensity burning will usually be faster and occur from smaller fires than in the very high danger class. Direct attack is rarely possible, and may be dangerous, except immediately after ignition. Fires burning in heavy slash or in conifer stands may be unmanageable while the extreme burning condition lasts. Under these conditions, the only effective and safe control action is on the flanks until the weather changes or the fuel supply lessens.

The Storm Prediction Center produces a fire weather outlook.  They have issued a critical risk of fire danger for a good portion of southern Minnesota on Easter Sunday as relative humidity values are forecasted to be in the 15 to 20 percent range, and sustained winds of 20 MPH.  We will likely see more Red Flag Warnings again tomorrow.

Be extra careful with your fires this weekend, or better yet, avoid any type of fire altogether.  Under these conditions, an uncontrolled fire can spread pretty quickly and it will be too late.

RS

A look back at the first week of April

This week we said goodbye to March and hello to April.  March 2012 was one of the warmest relative months I have ever experienced here in Minnesota.  I could not remember the last time there was a stretch of 70 degree temperatures in March.  We hit 80 on the 17th, which was the earliest date to record such a mark during the year.

It was a whopping 15.5 degrees above normal at MSP Airport, and warmest March on record.  Pretty much the same story across the state with temps at least 10 degrees above normal everywhere.

The trend over the last 115 years indicates that the our Marches have indeed become warmer in Minnesota.  Since 1895, the average temperature has increased nearly three degrees, or an increase of around a quarter-degree per decade.  Is this cyclical or climate change?  Honestly, I don’t know.

The warmth also brought strong storms to the area Monday as a low level jet interacted with a trough of low pressure.  Hail was the primary concern with these storms into the night as they tracked across the southern Twin Cities metro.

I decided to venture out as the western most storm cell headed into Scott County and the Shakopee area.

All I saw out of this was some pea size hail, lightning, and much needed rainfall.

Most of the hail reports where below severe levels of one-inch, but one report from Burnsville indicated one-inch hail.

A more potent storm system took aim across the southern United States on Tuesday with a chance of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes.

Shortly after noon central time, a tornado watch was issued for the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex.

Between noon and 3 PM, DFW was under the gun for tornadic activity.

Radar summary of the supercells producing the tornadoes from that afternoon.

One of the most awe-inspiring images and video from this tornado outbreak was watching semi-truck trailers, upwards of 15,000 pounds (7.5 tons!), being tossed into the air like toys.

New data is still coming in, but the National Weather Service in Dallas/Fort Worth has determined that at least 15 tornadoes occurred in the metro area and areas to the east. While there were injuries, miraculously no deaths were reported.  Most of the tornadoes were of EF-0 strength, which affected populated areas such as Dallas and Arlington, Texas.  The strongest tornado was an EF-3 in Forney, Texas.

What is helping fuel these thunderstorms across the south is the warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, which are in the upper 70s and low 80s.  With the mild winter, the Gulf of Mexico really did not have a chance to cool down.  Under these conditions, moisture is very easily transported into the atmosphere.

Looking ahead to the remainder of April, much of the United States is expected to see above normal temperatures according to the Climate Prediction Center.

Temperatures in the Twin Cities are already running above average for the month.  Back on April 2nd, we saw a low temperature that we typically see for a high temperature on that day!

As far as precipitation, we should be dry generally until the middle of the month.  For the last several days, the GFS model has been hinting at significant rains around the 14th to 16th time frame.  After this system moves through, new model guidance suggest that we will be in blocking pattern into the fourth week of April, keeping us dry.

In the short term, this weekend will be very nice.  Some showers are possible around mid-day Saturday (as much as a tenth of an inch of rain), but Easter is looking mild and dry.  Couldn’t ask for better weather on this holiday.

Happy Easter!  Hope it’s a good one for you and your family.

RS