Friday, December 14, 2012

Sloppy weather ahead

A low pressure area is forecasted to track from the Colorado Rockies, through Iowa, and into the southern Great Lakes between now and Sunday evening.


This low will be tapping into warmer air, allowing the majority of the precipitation to fall as rain early Saturday morning before changing over to all snow in the Twin Cities.  While I am highly confident that we will see a mixed bag, there are still differences in timing of the change over.  Right now I am forecasting the change over to snow early Saturday afternoon.  The GFS and Euro models move the system through the area faster than the NAM.  The NAM and Euro favor snow accumulations for the central portion of the state.  The models have been good with the general timing and track with this system over last weekend’s storm.  Last weekend’s storm gave me a headache with all the fluctuations!

NAM: (Saturday 6 PM)


GFS: (Saturday 9 PM)


Euro: (Saturday 9 PM)


I would hardly classify this weekend’s system as a storm.  One to three inches across much of central Minnesota does not really constitute a winter storm by Minnesota standards.


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