Will the Twin Cities see 80 degrees Sunday?

Clouds and southeast winds on Saturday locked temperatures across much of Minnesota into the upper 40s and 50s.  Where the sun did peak through in the southwestern part of the state, temperatures climbed into the low 60s.  If we do see peaks of sun, which is looking slimmer and slimmer by the hour, we could get temps between 55-60.  No sun means temps in the low 50s.

The possibility of 80 degree temperatures on Sunday has been in the conversation the last few days.  Since it appears winds will stay from the southeast as opposed to the south with some clouds present in the afternoon, MSP and southeast Minnesota wouldn’t see the full benefit of the warmth.  I tend to agree with the European solution on the temperature profiles for Sunday.  Much of southern Minnesota will see 70s, with 80s not making a grand appearance.

There could be a few stronger storms as we head towards the end of the day Sunday into overnight Monday with a frontal passage.  Storms with hail (“hailers”) will be possible, but the overall threat of severe storms is quite low.  We just don’t have the instability present (lack of moisture) for an outbreak.

Credit: Storm Prediction Center

RS

Fire danger this week

With gusty winds expected Tuesday, and low relative humidity levels, the National Weather Service in Chanhassen issued a Fire Weather Watch for southern Minnesota.

...A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN MINNESOTA DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF DRY FINE FUELS...VERY STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME... .A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS MINNESOTA TUESDAY MORNING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS AT 25 TO 35 MPH WILL DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE AS WELL. IN ADDITION...THE RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DROP TO NEAR 25 PERCENT DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE COMBINATION OF THE WIND...DRY FUELS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY COULD LEAD TO VERY DANGEROUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.

This coincides with the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources imposing burning restrictions in 35 counties across the state beginning on March 26th.

From the Minnesota DNR:

Fire danger in most of Minnesota is expected to increase rapidly in the coming week, as the snow continues to melt and winds dry the dead standing grass and brush in open areas. Because of this danger, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources (DNR) will place burning restrictions over much of the state starting March 26, with more areas included later.

Spring fire restrictions limit open burning until summer green-up occurs. Traditionally, most wildfires in Minnesota occur during April and May. More than 95 percent of these fires are caused by human error.

“Because of the high fire incidence during this time period, the DNR proactively initiates burning restrictions,” said DNR Fire Prevention Coordinator Larry Himanga.

The restrictions normally last from four to six weeks until sufficient green vegetative growth occurs. Spring fire restrictions have resulted in a dramatic decrease in both the numbers and sizes of accidental fires, Himanga said.

The burning restrictions mean the state will not give out burning permits for burning brush or yard waste.

The following counties will be included in the initial burning restrictions this spring: Aitkin, Anoka, Becker, southern Beltrami (that portion south of Hwy. 1), Benton, Carlton, Cass, Chisago, Clearwater, Crow Wing, Dakota, Douglas, Hennepin, Hubbard, Isanti, Itasca, Kanabec, Kittson, Manhomen, Marshall, Mille Lacs, Morrison, Otter Tail, Pennington, Pine, Polk (that portion south and east of County Road 6 from the Manhomen County line to MN Hwy 92 east to the Clearwater County line) Pope, Ramsey, Roseau (that portion west of Hwy. 89), Sherburne, Stearns, Todd, Wadena, Washington, and Wright. More counties will be added as spring weather conditions warrant.

Campfires are still allowed. Campers should watch their fire continuously and make sure it is out and cold to the touch before leaving the area.

Fire conditions may change quickly over the next few weeks. More information including maps and fire conditions is available online.

RS

Week in review and a look ahead to next week

Monday saw the first severe thunderstorms of the year across Minnesota to end the winter season.  The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities determined that an EF-0 touched down across Waseca and Le Sueur Counties, impacting the town of Elysian the hardest.

This was the second earliest tornado recorded in the state’s history by one day.  The tornado was on the low-end (I avoid the term “weak tornadoes”.  ALL tornadoes are capable of causing damage and harming people) and embedded within straight-line winds, making it difficult for meteorologists to detect, thus may explain why no warning was issued when it occurred.

The record-breaking heat wave ended by Tuesday as a cold front moved through the area.  8 out of the 10 days between March 10 and 19th saw new records at MSP.  Included in this stretch was the earliest 80 degree reading ever recorded in the Twin Cities, and a record seven days of 70 degree or higher temperatures for March.

Through March 23rd, we are already on our way to the warmest March ever with the average temperature over three degrees warmer than the highest mark set in 1910.

From Bill Stein at The Minnesota Forecaster:

New dew point records were also established in March:

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, as noted by Dr. Mark Seeley before the recent warmth, "The highest March dewpoint in the Twin Cities climate record is 60 degrees F on March 24, 1945."

• On March 17th, 19th, and 22nd, a dew point of 60 degrees was reported on hourly observations at Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport, tying the March dew point record.
• March 17th is now the earliest date in the calendar year that a 60 degree dew point has been recorded in the Twin Cities.

Despite a cool down with a couple fronts moving in early next week, temperatures will remain above normal (45 to 49 degrees) for the week with highs at least into the 50s.

Thunderstorm threat will increase for the start of the week with the best chance of storms for Minnesota coming on Tuesday.  The parameters for severe weather do not look all that impressive for the state Tuesday.  The greatest threat for any severe weather will be Monday to our south and southwest across South Dakota and Nebraska.  With the best wind shear over northeast Nebraska, tornadoes will be possible with any supercells expected to develop that day.

We should dry out after Tuesday night and should remain that way until next Saturday when another disturbance moves through the area.

RS

First bout of severe weather to end Winter

Our final day of astronomical winter ended with a round of strong to severe thunderstorms across southern Minnesota.  These storms developed along a trough of low pressure in a slightly unstable environment with temperatures in the mid to upper 70s, and dew points near 60 degrees.  Here is the surface map from 7 PM Monday.

Going into the day, clouds and limited instability appeared to hamper any widespread severe weather outbreak across much of the state.  Satellite imagery from 11:45 AM Monday.

By the noon hour, the Storm Prediction Center determined that enough instability was in place for isolated severe storms ahead of an advancing cold front along the Minnesota/Dakotas border to include western Minnesota in a slight risk for severe thunderstorms.

...MO/IA NWD TO THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN THROUGH TONIGHT... BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 50S BENEATH STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT A CORRIDOR OF WEAK-MODERATE INSTABILITY IN ADVANCE OF THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IN MO/IA...AND THE SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS. SOMEWHAT UNIDIRECTIONAL PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL WITH A BROKEN BAND OF STORMS ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE ERN DAKOTAS/WRN MN. STORM COVERAGE IS MORE CERTAIN FARTHER S INTO MO/IA WHERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW MOVING INTO WRN MO/IA. SOMEWHAT STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SHEAR /COMPARED TO FARTHER N/ WILL PROMOTE A RISK FOR EMBEDDED ROTATING STORMS IN A PREDOMINATELY LINEAR CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS/ISOLATED TORNADOES.

During the early evening hours, a line of storms developed and moved northward out of Iowa towards the Twin Cities.  On radar, the line showed signs of bowing out in Freeborn and Le Sueur Counties, indicating strong winds.  Radar loop of the storm approaching the Twin Cities is below.

All I saw while rushing out the door to catch this storm in Shakopee was winds to 35 miles per hour, and torrential rainfall that brought traffic to a crawl as drains tried to keep up with all the water.  Cloud to ground lightning was also evident as the leading edge approached.  The heaviest damage based on storm reports came from the town of Elysian in Le Sueur County.  There was an unconfirmed report of a tornado by the public as numerous roofs were ripped off between Lake Elysian and Lake Francis.  The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities may be doing a survey as early as Tuesday to determine whether the damage occurred from straight-line winds or a tornado.  The earliest verified tornado in Minnesota occurred on March 18, 1968, north of Truman, MN (Martin County).

Additional damage happened further south.  Here is storm damage to a grain silo from the Albert Lea area shared by Rusty Dawkins, Chief Meteorologist for KAAL-TV in Austin, MN, on Twitter:

Here are storm report highlights of wind damage and thunderstorm warnings issued during the duration of the storm:

Many locations across the state saw upwards to an inch of rain, with a few isolated places seeing close to two inches.  Here is a radar estimate of total rainfall from Monday:

Overall, it was a pretty mild-mannered thunderstorm event with isolated severe storm damage across the south central part of Minnesota.  The Storm Prediction Center had some difficulty figuring out this storm system with uncertainty in variables, but in the end I feel they made the right call by not issuing any severe thunderstorm watches as the storms posed a marginal severe threat for much of the evening.  A watch in under these conditions would have created a lot of public hysteria for so early in the year.  This event definitely had more bark than bite.

RS

March Madness

This unusual heat wave for this time of the year has broken records already this week east of the Rockies as temperatures have felt more like late April with the mercury reaching as high as 80 degrees across parts of southern Minnesota.  In the Twin Cities, our normal temperature for this time of the year is 41 degrees, and we are already 11 degrees above normal for March.  We are on pace for the warmest March on record According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, the greatest number of maximum temperatures at or above 70 in March is five such days, which occurred in 1910.  That year also happened to be the warmest March on record with an average temperature of 45 degrees.

Friday was the warmest day of the heat spell as highs nearly topped 80 degrees officially in the Twin Cities.  Officially, it was 79 degrees, but airports around the metro did record temperatures in the 80s as Flying Cloud Airport in Eden Prairie was the leader at 82 degrees.  80 degrees or more has occurred previously in the Twin Cities during the month with March 23rd being the earliest day of the year.  This record will likely be broken today.

With Friday’s 79 degrees smashing the old record of 71 set in 1930, five out of the last seven days have set new high temperature records in MSP.  The record for consecutive days is five, which occurred five different times: June 26-June 30, 1931, June 16-June 20, 1933, July 10-July 14, 1936, February 16-February 20, 1981, and the last stretch between March 4-March 8, 2000.  The trend in-between record dates certainly indicates the climate is much warmer now than a half century ago.

The Twin Cities should see it’s earliest 80 degree reading Saturday as I’m projecting temperatures to reach around 82 degrees.  Some clouds may hamper maximum sunlight late in the day during peak heating, keeping the air a bit cooler.  Temperatures will drop off next week as an unsettled wetter pattern arrives on our doorstep.

Heavier thunderstorms appear possible on Monday, but the dynamics for a severe weather outbreak do not appear all that favorable.  The Storm Prediction Center did go ahead and issue a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday across south central and east central Minnesota.  With these storms, we are looking at hail less than an inch in diameter, and gusty winds as the main threats.

RS

More records likely broken today

Another day of record warmth is on tap across Minnesota as we are looking at temperatures well into the 60s for most of the southern half of the state.  Here are some record events yesterday, according to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT TWIN CITIES MN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 1878.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES WAS TIED AT ST CLOUD MN TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 1977.

Some of the maximum temperature records in jeopardy today include the Twin Cities (61 degrees in 1902), St. Cloud (60 degrees in 1902), and Rochester (60 degrees in 1990).

Rain will move into the area overnight, but will only last through the morning hours before we stay warm all this week with temperatures approaching 70 degrees across the area.

RS

Le Sueur County wildfire

3/17/12 Update: National Weather Service link to grass fire imagery.

National Weather Service radar out of Chanhassen captured this smoke from a wildfire in Le Sueur County, southwest of Le Center, this afternoon. Click on the image to view the entire loop.

Radar image captured at 1:42 PM of the smoke blowing northeastward through Le Sueur County.

RS

Fire danger today with record breaking temperatures

The record high temperature in the Twin Cities will be flirted with today as temperatures are expected to climb close to 60 degrees behind a warm front moving through the area.  The record for March 10th at MSP is 59 degrees set back in 1878.

The mild air as eliminated the snow pack from the southern Twin Cities metro all the way to the Minnesota/Iowa border.  The snow pack is visible on satellite, as well as the larger lakes frozen over in northern Minnesota.  The exposed ground combined with unusually warm air and low relative humidity has triggered a fire danger across the southern third of Minnesota.

The result is a Red Flag Warning issued by the National Weather Service for the southern tier of counties in Minnesota effective until 6:00 PM today.  This includes Redwood Falls, Mankato, and Rochester.  It's quite rare to see a Red Flag Warning this early in the year.  Typically these are issued before the green-up in April.

If you are working with an open flame today (including cigarettes), be extra cautious of your surroundings.  It’s not going to take much to get a grass fire going.

RS

Lull between weather patterns

Wet slop impacted the Twin Cities early last week with snow across the northern suburbs into central and northern Minnesota.  Rain fell most of the Tuesday before switching over to snow by about 4:30 a.m Wednesday. With freezing rain pelting my bedroom windows overnight, I didn't get much sleep, so I listened for when it stopped which would signal the changeover to all snow. By 8 a.m. Wednesday, snow in Shakopee totaled 1.5 inches with the remainder of the metro seeing anywhere from one to eight inches of snow. The highest snow total I could find was east of Hinckley of 20 inches!  1.35 inches of total water accumulated. This was the most precipitation in the form of water that we’ve seen since August 16, 2011.

As February came to a close, it was the fourth warmest winter on record in the Twin Cities, and tied for the warmest in St. Cloud.  Most locations in the state were averaging at least five degrees above normal between December and February.

For February alone, the Twin Cities was 6.9 degrees and St. Cloud was 7.7 degrees above normal.

The late February storm helped bring precipitation totals in line for the winter across the southern half of Minnesota, however much of north central Minnesota saw 50 to 75 percent of normal precipitation for the season.

March came as a lion from Indiana to Mississippi as an outbreak of severe thunderstorms with violent tornadoes occurred on March 2nd.  The Storm Prediction Center issued a high risk of severe thunderstorms during the early morning of the 2nd.  Throughout the day, tornado watches and warnings littered the landscape from the Ohio River Valley to the Lower Mississippi River Valley.  Filtering duplicate reports, over 90 tornadoes touched down in at least eight different states.

Hail in excess of baseball size fell in Carroll County, Kentucky.

Here is video of a tornado as it moved through Henryville, Indiana, severely damaging the high school.

One of the most heartbreaking stories from this storm was a 14-month-old girl who was tossed by a tornado 150 yards from her parent’s home in New Pekin, Indiana died as a result of being taken off life support from the extent of injuries.  Her entire family – two parents and two siblings died in the storm.

This storm was also a reminder as to why I signed up to be a Skywarn spotter.  We need people on the ground helping out with the warning process, so the public can take action quickly.  You can find classes by clicking the banner below.  Over the weekend, I became re-certified with Metro Skywarn for another two year period.  The classes are painless as you’ll learn a lot about thunderstorm structure, and more importantly, help out your community in time of need during bad weather.

On moderate and high risk of severe weather days, any storms that pop in these conditions will usually become severe rapidly and produce large hail and have the capability of producing tornadoes.  It’s also particularly important to pay attention to weather media and I urge the public to take these warnings seriously.  It just might save your life!

RS