TGIS! (Thank God It's Spring)

What an absolute treat we had for weather on Sunday. No forecast model even came close to predicting a 60 degree day, let alone 50 degrees. However, I don't think many people will be complaining about this miscalculation. The Twin Cities official high temp of 64° as well as Eau Claire, Wisconsin's high of 66° were record-breaking. It was a morale-boosting day as many people took advantage of getting outside and soaking it all in. A walk, followed by cleaning out the gunk on the garage floor that had accumulated all winter was on my agenda. The foot of snow we had at the beginning of March is all but gone. All that's left are a few small snow piles on areas that don't see much sunlight or are tucked away in low-lying areas. The Twin Cities metro area saw roughly an inch of snow melt per day from March 1 to March 12.

This unexpected warmth has triggered an accelerated snow melt and revised flood forecasts from the National Weather Service. Many river towns/cites around the Twin Cities are going to see minor to moderate flooding. Ice jamming is going to be a common occurrence this spring. As of Sunday night, an ice jam was reported along the Minnesota River near Henderson that triggered a flash flood warning for the overnight hours.

AT 716 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED AN ICE JAM ON THE
MINNESOTA RIVER APPROXIMATELY A HALF MILE TO A MILE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE TOWN OF HENDERSON. AREAS NEAR STATE HIGHWAY 19 INCLUDING
SIBLEY COUNTY HIGHWAY 6 LEADING NORTH OUT OF HENDERSON AND STATE
HIGHWAY 93 SOUTH OF HENDERSON MAY BE AFFECTED BY FLOODING DUE TO
THIS ICE JAM. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THESE ROADS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR CHANGES IN THE RIVER LEVELS.

Red River Update. For Fargo, North Dakota residents, the Red River is expected to reach a level on Friday night of 38 feet, which would make it the forth largest crest on record if the numbers hold. The river will continue to fluctuate around this level during the upcoming weeks, so I am concerned that the river could rise to 40 feet when it's all said and done.


This week's outlook. Dry weather and at or above average temps will continue into this week with rain chances coming Tuesday (20%) as a disturbance moves through and Thursday night (30%) when a cold front moves through the state. As the GFS model above indicates, we may be starting our weekend on a soggy note as Saturday could bring us a good chance of a rain/snow mix. We are very close to the rain/snow line, represented by the pink line. As we get closer to Saturday, the forecast models will become more defined. Any precip will not help out with flooding. .75 or 1 inch of rain could prove to be disasterous for residents along rivers. Let's hope we don't see much rain for a while!