Slight risk for severe weather and tornadoes today over MN

There is a slight risk of severe weather today over Minnesota today.  The storms will primarily be affecting our area towards the late evening into the overnight.  Wind, hail, and even a small chance of a tornado or two is possible as indicated by the Storm Prediction Center below in their Saturday AM outlook.

Isolated severe storms have begun to pop over western MN this morning. Warnings have been issued near Willmar and Marshall for strong winds and hail.  One inch hail was reported 10 miles south of Marshall, MN around 7:45 AM.

Keep your eye to the sky today and if you have a NOAA Weather Radio (everyone should have them like a smoke detector), make sure  to turn on the tone alarm as another round of storms approach the Cities overnight.   More severe weather is possible on Sunday and then a greater chance of more significant weather rolls in for Wednesday. In between storms, it will be hot and muggy, so your best bet is to find water to stay cool.

RS

Where are all the tornadoes in Minnesota?

As we get deeper into the severe weather season, normally Minnesota would see twisters dance across the landscape and hopefully not causing damage or bodily harm.  The month of June sees the greatest frequency of tornadoes.  I know you’re asking, “Well if June see the most tornadoes, then where are they?”.  The answer is not simple, but we just haven’t seen the setup with a ton of moisture, heat, and veering of winds at the same time.  With the colder winter over the Gulf, that cooled the water temperatures and prevented much moisture from spreading north.  The effects of the horrible BP oil spill have been negligible on the weather, I believe, comparing the area of spill relative to the size of the Gulf of Mexico.

The latest date that Minnesota has seen a tornado is June 23rd, according to the fine folks at the National Weather Service and the State Climatology Office.  Don’t mean to put any jinxes on anybody or promote any kind of weather terrorism, but the state is overdue for a tornado to hit soon - perhaps within a month.

Breaking down the numbers, this is what I found about dates as it relates to when the first tornadoes strike the state looking at data between 1999 and 2009:

Year	First MN tornado
1999	6/5
2000	4/27
2001	5/1
2002	5/28
2003	5/14
2004	4/18
2005	3/30
2006	5/7
2007	5/23
2008	5/25
2009	6/17
Avg. Date (1999-2009)	5/12
Earliest (1999-2009)	3/30
Latest (1999-2009)	6/17
Latest Historical Date	6/23

March is the earliest month to see tornadoes.  Most of us that have been living in Minnesota for a while remember the Comfrey and St. Peter tornadoes in 1998 that hit on March 28.  Last year was the third latest on record for the first report.  The average start date between 1999 and 2009 happens to be in mid-May.

Could we be in store for another climatological record?  We will  know in a few short weeks.  It appears a more active pattern will be seen in the Midwest over the next week or two according to the forecast models.  There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty.  It’s difficult to predict what will happen more than 5 days out, I don’t care what anyone says.  These are just some stats you’ll start to hear about over the upcoming weeks.

RS

Uffda!

There is no other way to put it.  It’s hot.  Do yourself a favor and find a pool, lake, or the nearest Dairy Queen.  Summer…is…back (and so are my blog posts)!  After a stretch of rain and cooler weather over the last month, temperatures soared well into the 90’s across the Upper Midwest on Monday.  Thanks to the high dewpoints, the combination of heat and humidity triggered an excessive heat warning for the downtowns of Minneapolis and St. Paul during the sunlight hours on Monday.  A few cities set record highs including Minneapolis and St. Cloud in Minnesota, as well as Eau Claire, Wisconsin.  The map below illustrates the high temperatures for today.

The average high temperature for this time in May is in the low 70s, so we were well above normal.  This weather will stick around for much of the week with high temperatures in the 80s.  The atmosphere above us is capped, therefore thunderstorm chances will be slight.  If storms can overcome the cap, any development can be strong to severe Tuesday as cold front passes from the Dakotas. Any rain chance will be gone by Wednesday afternoon, but will return just in time for Memorial Day weekend holiday.  Stay cool!

RS

No weather

Well folks, it’s been pretty quiet in the weather department. Not much to speak of. Just as I expected going into the month of April, I had a hunch that it would be a dry month. The Minneapolis area and places north and east haven’t seen any significant snows since February. Also, we have been cutoff from any Gulf moisture making it’s way to the Midwest as a result of cooler ocean temperatures due to the colder and snowier winter in the south, and upper-level ridging that has taken place so far this year which has put a lid on the moisture return north for storm development.

Currently, the northeast MSP metro and northwest Wisconsin are experiencing slight to moderate drought conditions. If we don’t get significant rains soon, it will hurt planting season.

High Temperatures
	Mon 3/29	Tue 3/30	Wed 3/31	Thu 4/1	Fri 4/2	Sat 4/3
Fort Myers	71	72	73	81	84	85
Minneapolis	59	75	76	81	72	61

Minnesota is the new Florida? I recently returned from a trip to the sunshine state of Florida where the weather was absolutely perfect. Blue skies everyday and not a rain drop to be found. It was truly living in paradise for a week. Vacationing in Fort Myers, Florida, you would think that one of the most southern points of the country would be the warmest, right? Nope. During the middle of the week prior to Easter, it was actually warmer in Minneapolis than it was in Fort Myers. Maybe the Minnesota Twins should consider holding spring training here instead since out weather pattern seems to be so backwards lately?

Outlook. The forecast models are not showing any significant precipitation for the rest of the week, but we may see the rains return by the middle of next week. The work week will end with temps in the 60's, with 60's being the norm throughout the weekend.

Have a good weekend!

RS

From floods to drought?

As we come to the end of March, it's been potentially another record breaking month. Amazingly, the Twin Cities has not seen any snow this month. If this trend continues for MSP, it will be the first time in recorded history that no snow has fallen in March. Certainly this has helped with flooding, but now do farmers, and homeowners that appreciate green lawns, need to be concerned with the lack of water in the ground?



It's dry! The northern metro is already experiencing moderate drought conditions. As the spring green-up occurs and dead undergrowth becomes exposed to dry conditions, it could set the stage for wild brush fires. It is possible that somewhere in Minnesota a Red Flag Warning could be issued during a period in April. This warning is issued when there is a sustained wind average of 15 MPH or greater, a relative humidity less than or equal to 25 percent, and a temperature of greater than 75°F. Last spring, a brush fire started by a resident quickly got out of control in Shakopee that burned 100 acres in a four hour period on tax day, April 15th, 2009. The relative humidity was in the 10-15 percent range during the time of the fire. That's a value that exceeds deserts! Be careful with any burning this year. Better advice: Don't do it!




If you like thunderstorms, you may not like this news. With the lack of precip of any kind this month, this hasn't helped with moisture content at the surface to fuel thunderstorms. Moisture is one key component, along with instability, and differential heating to create a lift for the air. Checking the GFS long-range models, no major storm systems are in sight. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating in it's 30-day outlook that most of Minnesota has equal chances of above, below, or normal temperatures and precipitation. Southern Minnesota could be a little bit on the cooler side around Marshall and Worthington. These factors have given me a gut feeling that April will for the most part be dry. Perhaps May will be different. Each month is like it's own chapter in a climatology book.

This week's outlook. The newest late-night GFS forecast runs are hot off the presses, and it appears that the work week will be dry with a healthy dose of sunshine with above average temps in the high 40s and low 50s. On Saturday, a low-pressure system may trigger some snow flurries, or a slushy mix. It will be a close call as the rain/snow line hovers near.

Enjoy the week!

RS

Flood video of Minnesota River near Jordan, MN

Moving water from the Minnesota River over Carver County Road 11, 2 miles NNW of Jordan, MN.

2010 Flood pictures

Pictures taken Friday, March 19th of flooding conditions along the Minnesota River in Shakopee and Jordan.

West of County Road 101 and south of the Minnesota River in Shakopee. The river is well out of it's banks. Highway crews were shutting down the 101 river crossing as I was taking these pictures.








Pictures taken 2 miles NNW of Jordan near the Minnesota Valley State Recreation Area (map of general area below):