Is Spring around the corner?

Winter has extended it’s stay into April with 6.6 inches of snow having fallen already this month officially in the Twin Cities, with much more across western and northern Minnesota.  Another 2.7 inches needs to fall in the Twin Cities to crack the top 10 snowiest month of April. If there is any silver lining, April snow typically does not stick around long as the sun angle and radiation for this time of the year is able to erode at the snow pack.  Where recent snows have been the heaviest, a foot or more still exists north of the Highway 23 corridor.

Another episode of never-ending wintery weather is on tap as a low pressure system will move out from the Rockies and into Minnesota today into early Monday. 

North of the low is where heavy snow will occur. Across the Red River Valley is where 6 to 10 inches of snow is possible.  This is an area that does not additional precipitation as major flooding is forecasted for the area.

South of the low is where rain will be found as somewhat warmer air is trying to make it’s way into the southern portions of the state.  The models have been consistent at indicating a chance for freezing rain as temperatures hovering around the freezing point.  The Weather Prediction Center shows high probabilities of this occurring across central and south central Minnesota.  This could make morning roads a bit slick for travel, before we see a change-over to rain for the afternoon.

Radar showing the rain marching northward across southern Minnesota.  Rain being reported across south central Minnesota with some mixed precipitation in the Rochester area.  Snow is falling across the southern Twin Cities metro.

Turning the page?  Recent model trends have indicated a chance of 60 degree weather across southern Minnesota to close out the month.

We just need a little patience as these temps are still a couple weeks out. We will have to see if this holds up. Models this far out have a tendency to fluctuate a bit. At some point we have to warm up!

RS

Welcome to Spring…kinda

March Madness

Believe it or not, spring begins at 6:02 AM Central Standard Time!  It certainly will not feel like it, as temperatures start off in the single digits in the morning with wind chill a factor.  Spring has not started this cold since 1965, when the temperature reached a high of 15 degrees in the Twin Cities on March 20 of that year.  Contrast this to the very mild March we had in 2012, where it felt like summer at times with temperatures into the 80s.  With the warm air mass last year came severe weather, as an early tornado occurred on March 19, south of the Twin Cities metro.  Nonetheless, the drastic swing between the two years has made the natives restless, and a particular weather-predicting rodent very unpopular.

March started unseasonably chilly as high temperatures are running 20 degrees below normal. Yes, 20, that is not a typo!  We have only reached at or above average for a maximum daily temperature four times this month.

In addition to the cold, it has also been a snowy month as we have reached 13.8 inches of snow for the month – a March surplus of 6.4 inches.  The previous weather system dropped 3.1 inches of snow officially at Minneapolis/St. Paul International Airport.

For the season, we have received 49.3 inches of snow. That is around normal for the season - just two tenths above.  Between December, February, and March it has been a pretty even distribution of snow.  February reigns supreme when it comes to most snow with 15.1 inches, but December was right behind, checking in at 15.0 inches.

Unfortunately, the rest of March is looking ugly as I alluded to in my video blog.  Below normal temperatures will continue right through the end of the month.  Snow chances return to Minnesota early next week, and the potential is there for at least another couple inches.  I don’t think we will have to worry about any early severe thunderstorm outbreaks this year.

The extended cold snap will also make it difficult to melt away at the snow pack.  North and west of the Twin Cities lies well over a foot of snow.  Roughly two-thirds of the state has this much on the ground right now.  I am concerned about rapid snow melt and the potential for flooding affecting some parts of the state this spring.

When will spring finally arrive?  Only time will tell, but my hunch is that it will be sometime in April.  We can not stay in this pattern forever.

RS

Weather briefing of upcoming Winter storm

Here is a video blog I created discussing the upcoming winter storm to impact the state.  More of a practice run to get a feel for video blogging.  Let me know if this is medium for presenting information.

RS

Where is Spring?

A lot of Minnesotans are wondering where spring-like weather is now that we are into the month of March.  So far this month, we have seen a few snow events across the state, dumping a half-foot or more at one time to some parts.  The Twin Cities saw heavy snow on March 4th and 5th, and northern and southeastern Minnesota were on the receiving end March 8th and 9th, and 10th and 11th, respectively.

As for temperatures, high temperatures in the Twin Cities are generally below average.  We have yet to see 40 degrees for the month.  Contrast this to this time last year, where the mercury was in the 50s once, and three days saw temperatures in excess of 60 degrees.

2011-12 was also a very abnormal year when it came to winter.  We were spoiled, and that is part of the reason we are clamoring for spring to arrive.  Only 22.3 inches of snow fell the entire season.  Area lakes were already ice-free by the end of February as average high temperatures were well above normal for the month.  As a result, our perception of “normal” changed.

As of March 11, 2013, we have seen twice as much snow with 44.8 inches in the Twin Cities. This is 1.4 inches below normal, so this is pretty close to a typical winter for the metro.  The 2012-2013 meteorological winter (December 1, 2012 to March 1, 2013) for St. Cloud and Twin Cities saw near normal temperatures and precipitation.  It was a different story for the western central and far northern Minnesota as average temperatures were slightly below normal, and precipitation was well above normal.  Some locations saw double the amount of water in a typical meteorological winter.

So how do we really feel about winter?  The Minnesota State Climatology Office attempted to quantify the severity of winter by creating an index, known as the Winter Misery Index.

Here is a little information on how it works:

The Winter Misery Index (WMI) is an attempt to weigh the relative severity of winters. The index assigns points for daily counts of maximum temperatures 10 degrees or colder and daily minimums of 0 or colder. If the minimum temperature is -20 or colder greater weight is assigned to the value times 8. For snowfall, one inch is assigned a point per calendar day. A four inch snowfall is times 4, and an 8 inch snowfall is times 8. The duration of a winter is noted by the number of days the snow depth is 12 inches or greater. All current measurements are at the Twin Cities International Airport.

As of March 1, 2013 the WMI in Twin Cities is 53 points, or three points away from the "moderate winter" category.  This roughly parallels snow totals and average temperatures against normal in a given season.  The lowest WMI score was the winter of 2011-2012 with 16 points, a very mild, or comfortable winter. The most severe winter is 1916-1917 with 305 WMI points.

The common theme from the information above is that we are going through a normal winter.  We have not one of these in a couple years, so this is more of a reminder of what winter is supposed to be like for the Twin Cities and surrounding area.  With that said, March daytime temperatures are starting off eight degrees below normal.  Temperatures should be running in the upper 30s by now.  Most days in the month so far have been a struggle to hit 30 degrees.  March snowfall averages just over 10 inches, and we are 9.3 inches for the month, so we are near average not even halfway through the month.  It is not so much the winter that people are asking for spring, but rather due to March not starting off the way it should based on averages.  Only time will tell how the rest of the month plays out, and how much of a spring we have this year.

RS

Meteorological Spring 2012 recap

The month of May finished warm and wet across much of the state, which was typical of spring.  Both Minneapolis and St. Cloud recorded the second wettest May on record with 9.34" and 8.76" of rainfall, respectively.  A large swath of Minnesota saw anywhere between two to four times normal precipitation for the month. 

During the month, as much as ten inches of rain fell just west and north of the Twin Cities, causing area rivers to rise rapidly to near or at flood stage.  The National Weather Service in Chanhassen recorded 11.23" of rainfall in May.  Over half the days in May brought measurable rainfall.

Soggy conditions persisted through the second half of the meteorological spring with central Minnesota receiving more than normal rainfall for the season to eliminate drought concerns by the end of May across the same areas.  The total precipitation in the Twin Cities from March to May this year was 13.78 inches, or 5.87 inches above normal.  Precipitation at MSP as of May 31, 2012 is 15.85 inches.

May was also known to be a mild month.  Nearly the entire state saw temperatures above the mean.  The Twin Cities was 4.6 degrees above normal, with St. Cloud also checking in above normal at 3.8 degrees.

May contributed to the warmest spring on record for locations in central and southern Minnesota including the Twin Cities, St. Cloud and Rochester.  The Twin Cities recorded a mean temperature of 54 degrees.  Duluth tied the warmest spring on record, and International Falls had the fourth warmest spring.  March 2012 was the main reason for the extremely warm spring, and nearly single-handedly carried the seasonal average to the number one warmest!

It was quite the unusually spring with a little bit of everything, from droughts to floods, and an unprecedented mild March!  If spring was any indication, summer will be quite the three month ride.  Buckle up!

RS

Winter with a touch of Spring

Late Sunday into Monday, we experienced the unfamiliar sight this season of snow. You know, the flakey, white stuff, remember it? While most of the Twin Cities saw one to three inches of snow from this last storm system, it was enough to make for a very slow morning commute on Monday. Freezing mist fell most of Sunday before transitioning to snow late in the day, creating a glazed layer of ice on roadways in addition to snow accumulations to create slippery conditions. At least 100 vehicle spin-outs were reported across the metro. Hopefully you were not one of them! 1.9 inches of snow was recorded officially, bringing our seasonal total up to 14.4 inches. This last snowfall also pushed us beyond the mark for the least amount of seasonal snow of 14.2 inches set in the Dust Bowl era of 1931-32. We should add on to the total as we head into February, and then the second-snowiest month, March. We are not completely out of the clear for January snow. Friday is appearing to be more active, as well as the middle part of the upcoming weekend. It is difficult to pin down exact totals right now, but it does appear to be enough to slow things down a bit for those doing some weekend traveling. Cannot rule out at least an inch or two of snow during each snow episode, but these are not shaping up to be major storms.

 

Once we get past the snow, temperatures will noticeably warm up starting Thursday. The first stretch of mild air will last through the weekend. It will be followed by another surge of southerly winds on Tuesday. High temperatures will be running a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal at times during the next seven days. Can someone remind me what season it is again? One thing is for sure, it has made for a very short winter thus far. Hard to believe it's almost February!

 

It goes along with the month we are having. Since the beginning of January, we have been above average for high temperatures an incredible 21 out of 25 days! Forget winter, we jumped from fall right into spring! Another sign spring is around the corner? Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers will be reporting in Fort Myers, Florida for Spring Training on February 18th.

Enjoy "March-uary" or whatever term you would like to call January. Perhaps blogging about the weather has kept the snow away? If that is the case, I could make a lot of good friends that dislike snow very quickly. "Old Man Winter" has certainly been in hibernation this season.

RS

Stretch of 70-degree weather on it’s way?

Taking a look at some of the long-range forecast models, it appears that a substantial warm-up is in the works beginning next week.  For all the mothers out there, Mother’s Day may be the first in a series of 70-degree days.  Sunday and Monday, the mercury is trending towards 70 and we should be into the 60’s for highs as we move into the middle of May.  Spring has finally sprung!


RS

More April snow. Ugh.

A low pressure system out of the Rockies will move through Illinois by late Tuesday, bringing with it precipitation that will fall mainly as rain during most of the day Tuesday before some snow mixes in Tuesday night as cold air wraps around the backside of the low.  Yes, we are not through with snow in April folks.  Old Man Winter still wants one last laugh before we transition to spring.  This is the 4th snowiest seasonal snowfall on record, and we are just 3.7 inches away from taking over 3rd place.


Looking at the 00z NAM model data, it appears the snow will begin to fall between 7-9 PM Tuesday and be continuous through the afternoon on Wednesday.  Liquid precip amounts will be running around .35 inches.  Using a 8-to-1 snow ratio average, it equates out to roughly 3 inches of snow, which will be the high end of the snow total range.



Looking at all the available model output, the general consensus seems to be from 1 to 3 inches of snow across the Twin Cities metro.  Since temperatures will be hovering right around freezing, we will not see fluffy snow.  Just some thick, wet flakes as the changeover happens from rain to snow.



The Wednesday morning commute could be a little slow, as the GFS model advertises the heaviest of the snowfall will occur.  The temperature profile below at 7 AM Wednesday shows all layers of the atmosphere below freezing (0°C) all the way up to 25,000 feet above the earth’s surface.  That’s impressive for this time of the year!



To wrap this up, I’m expecting 1-3 inches of snow for the metro with heavier amounts across southeast Minnesota, where they could be closer to the 4-6 inch snowfall range.  Places such as Red Wing, Rochester, and towards La Crosse, Wisconsin.  Spring is being casually late this year due in part to the La Nina winter we experienced.  With the effects of La Nina diminishing, hopefully we will find some balance and that our summer will be beautiful.  Still too early to say for sure, but my hunch is that the middle part of summer could very well be hot and dry.  Something I will keep my eye on, that’s for sure.  We’ll make it through this.

Latest watches and advisories:
Winter Weather Advisory valid at Apr 19, 7:00 PM CDT for Anoka, Blue Earth, Brown, Carver, Chisago, Dakota, Faribault, Freeborn, Goodhue, Hennepin, Le Sueur, Martin, McLeod, Nicollet, Ramsey, Rice, Scott, Sibley, Steele, Waseca, Washington, Watonwan [MN] and Barron, Chippewa, Dunn, Eau Claire, Pepin, Pierce, Polk, Rusk, St. Croix [WI] till Apr 20, 12:00 PM CDT

RS

Looking ahead to April

As March comes to a conclusion, most Minnesotans are left wondering, “what happened to spring?”  This is the 5th snowiest winter season on record with 84.7 inches of snow, and we may add to that in April.  Since the first official day of spring on March 20th, high temperatures have been in the 30’s and 40’s.  If there’s a bright side, it’s that temperatures should begin to climb now that the sun’s angle is increasing.  The average temperature for April is 46.2 degrees.  The bad news: The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is indicating temperatures will be below normal across much of the Upper Midwest through the month.

The cold spring weather can be attributed to the weakening La Nina pattern in the Pacific, as discussed by the CPC:

La Niña will continue to have global impacts even as the episode weakens through the Northern Hemisphere Spring. Expected La Niña impacts during March-May 2011 include suppressed convection over the west-central tropical Pacific Ocean, and enhanced convection over Indonesia. Potential impacts in the United States include an enhanced chance of below-average precipitation across much of the southern states and the Central Rockies and Central Plains. An increased chance of below-average temperatures is predicted for much of the West Coast and across the northern tier of states (excluding New England). A higher possibility of above-average temperatures is favored for much of the southern half of the contiguous U.S.

The trend is also for a wetter April, which could translate to an overall rainy spring.  This will not help elevate the flooding situation across many of the rivers in the Northern Plains.  Rivers across southern Minnesota experienced a first crest this week, with a second crest expected in mid-to-late April.  Here’s a look at the Minnesota River in Shakopee, where high water levels are being forecasted for the middle of the month:

As for the short term, a potent storm system will move across the northern tier states Sunday into Monday.  The models seem to be indicating that most of the precipitation will fall as rain with maybe a few wet flakes mixed in at times.  The pink line on the map below represents a rough snow/rain line:

As much as an inch of precipitation may be seen from this early week storm.

If this December or January, we could easily be looking at a foot or more of snow. Thankfully, we are past that! I don’t think we’ll be seeing 14 inches of snow to break the all-time snow record. Hopefully, we don’t see periods of heavy rains to accelerate river levels.  Rain is worse than snow for the flooding situation.  While I’m not anticipating a warm and dry spring, I encourage everyone to get out and enjoy the nice days we have.  Over the next three months, they may be few and far between.  With the long winter, many are anxious to go about regular outdoor activities and hobbies.  Based on previous La Nina winters, our summer could turn out to be hot and dry.  Mother Nature always seems to find a balance.

RS

From floods to drought?

As we come to the end of March, it's been potentially another record breaking month. Amazingly, the Twin Cities has not seen any snow this month. If this trend continues for MSP, it will be the first time in recorded history that no snow has fallen in March. Certainly this has helped with flooding, but now do farmers, and homeowners that appreciate green lawns, need to be concerned with the lack of water in the ground?



It's dry! The northern metro is already experiencing moderate drought conditions. As the spring green-up occurs and dead undergrowth becomes exposed to dry conditions, it could set the stage for wild brush fires. It is possible that somewhere in Minnesota a Red Flag Warning could be issued during a period in April. This warning is issued when there is a sustained wind average of 15 MPH or greater, a relative humidity less than or equal to 25 percent, and a temperature of greater than 75°F. Last spring, a brush fire started by a resident quickly got out of control in Shakopee that burned 100 acres in a four hour period on tax day, April 15th, 2009. The relative humidity was in the 10-15 percent range during the time of the fire. That's a value that exceeds deserts! Be careful with any burning this year. Better advice: Don't do it!




If you like thunderstorms, you may not like this news. With the lack of precip of any kind this month, this hasn't helped with moisture content at the surface to fuel thunderstorms. Moisture is one key component, along with instability, and differential heating to create a lift for the air. Checking the GFS long-range models, no major storm systems are in sight. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating in it's 30-day outlook that most of Minnesota has equal chances of above, below, or normal temperatures and precipitation. Southern Minnesota could be a little bit on the cooler side around Marshall and Worthington. These factors have given me a gut feeling that April will for the most part be dry. Perhaps May will be different. Each month is like it's own chapter in a climatology book.

This week's outlook. The newest late-night GFS forecast runs are hot off the presses, and it appears that the work week will be dry with a healthy dose of sunshine with above average temps in the high 40s and low 50s. On Saturday, a low-pressure system may trigger some snow flurries, or a slushy mix. It will be a close call as the rain/snow line hovers near.

Enjoy the week!

RS

Red River flooding and weekend update

Well, what a beautiful week it was! A nice, sunny stretch of temperatures around 40 degrees. Just warm enough to crack open a car window to get some fresh air, or take advantage of a peaceful walk. As you have seen from looking outside, we have lost much of our snow pack. Snow lovers fret as they are now on borrowed time to get the most out of their winter activities. Dare we see some patches of dormant grass already? If not for the snow, we may have seen temperatures 10 or 15 degrees warmer this week and borderline shorts weather! Much of the sun energy this time of the year is used to melt the lowest layers of the snow.



It has been very dry month of February across Minnesota with most places seeing less than an inch of precipitation. This has aided in the decrease of widespread flooding concerns across the state.



Change in the air? It looks like our streak of dry days are about to come to an end. The GFS forecast model above is showing some rain moving into the area for Saturday. The pink line, called the "540 line" in the meteorological world, is the rain/snow line. We will stay in the warm sector, so the precip will fall as rain. Some of the roads may become slick as temps will fall below freezing as the sun sets Saturday. Take it easy out there if you must drive. Sunday looks like the better day of the two as the rain moves out of the area and sunshine returns.

The updated spring flooding outlook came out for south central Minnesota and eastern North Dakota from the North Central River Forecast Center. With the lack of precipitation over the last month, the probabilities of major flooding along the Minnesota and Mississippi rivers are low. The exception here is the Mississippi River at Hastings - there's about a 70% chance of the river reaching a flood stage of 18 feet.



That's the good news, now the bad news. Our friends that live along the Red River are still likely to experience severe flooding due significant rainfalls last fall and a greater, and heavier snow pack this winter. The city of Fargo will likely receive the brunt of the flooding as flooding will be imminent within 90 days. There's a greater than 98% chance the the river will crest to major levels at 30 feet. Last week, Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker declared a state of emergency for the city. Citizens should already begin preparations for sandbagging and moving valuables to higher ground. If there is any positive news, the river in Fargo does not appear to reach the 2009 level of 40.84 feet. Only a 30% chance of this happening.





Next week's outlook: The weather pattern becomes more active as we will see rain chances increase Tuesday and into the middle of the week. Temperatures in the mid-40s throughout the week.

Why I'm not in meteorology

Here in Minnesota we have enjoyed a couple weeks of no major storms. No slow commutes because of slick roads. A very quiet weather pattern indeed. One word sums it up best: peaceful. Mike Fairbourne on WCCO-TV had another term - "boring". This is one of the reasons why I did not go into meteorology. Sitting in front of a computer and staring at blank forecast models with not a cloud in the sky does not interest me much. I would rather be outside enjoying the sunshine and warmth. It was a beautiful weekend to be out and taking part in winter activities with the snowpack we have left. Looking ahead in the next two weeks, we could be losing much much of our snow with above freezing temperatures as well as a possible rain storm moving in at the end of the weekend that lingers into Monday.


As the map above indicates, we have a shot of daytime temperatures hitting 40 degrees early next week as a low pressure system moves towards us, drawing in warm air from the Gulf. We will likely have out first big rain storm of the meterological spring. For those, like myself, yearning for spring's arrival, this is one sign that we are just about there! Enjoy this week. It will certainly be one of the nicest stretches we had all year so far.

Quiet weather week ahead

This week's weather appears to be quiet as we head into March and the unofficial start to severe weather season (March 1st).


According to the latest QPF from the Hydrometeorological Prediction Center, east central Minnesota will pick up about .1" of liquid which equates roughly to an inch of snow for Tuesday. The morning and afternoon drive may be a bit slow, but the snowfall shouldn't cause a major hassle.

High temperatures should stay above single digits for the rest of the week, but above freezing temps many not be too far away. Perhaps as early as the conclusion to the first week of March?


Spring is knocking at the doorstep. It will be here soon enough, and it won't be too long before we are sitting at the beach, enjoying the sunshine! Ah, yes...