Is Spring around the corner?

Winter has extended it’s stay into April with 6.6 inches of snow having fallen already this month officially in the Twin Cities, with much more across western and northern Minnesota.  Another 2.7 inches needs to fall in the Twin Cities to crack the top 10 snowiest month of April. If there is any silver lining, April snow typically does not stick around long as the sun angle and radiation for this time of the year is able to erode at the snow pack.  Where recent snows have been the heaviest, a foot or more still exists north of the Highway 23 corridor.

Another episode of never-ending wintery weather is on tap as a low pressure system will move out from the Rockies and into Minnesota today into early Monday. 

North of the low is where heavy snow will occur. Across the Red River Valley is where 6 to 10 inches of snow is possible.  This is an area that does not additional precipitation as major flooding is forecasted for the area.

South of the low is where rain will be found as somewhat warmer air is trying to make it’s way into the southern portions of the state.  The models have been consistent at indicating a chance for freezing rain as temperatures hovering around the freezing point.  The Weather Prediction Center shows high probabilities of this occurring across central and south central Minnesota.  This could make morning roads a bit slick for travel, before we see a change-over to rain for the afternoon.

Radar showing the rain marching northward across southern Minnesota.  Rain being reported across south central Minnesota with some mixed precipitation in the Rochester area.  Snow is falling across the southern Twin Cities metro.

Turning the page?  Recent model trends have indicated a chance of 60 degree weather across southern Minnesota to close out the month.

We just need a little patience as these temps are still a couple weeks out. We will have to see if this holds up. Models this far out have a tendency to fluctuate a bit. At some point we have to warm up!

RS

Messy start to Sunday?

Temperatures will trend towards the freezing point by Sunday morning as southerly winds drive warmer air into the area.

With low pressure systems approaching and temps close to freezing, there is some concern the precipitation to begin the day could be a wintery mix of sleet, or even freezing rain.  A few of the models, such as the SREF, are hinting at sleet, while the GFS and RUC are indicating freezing rain.

SREF:

RUC:

The reason for the freezing rain is that we have a warm layer of air in the mid-levels of the atmosphere sandwiched between a cold layer in the upper-levels and at the surface.

For anyone commuting in the morning, you’ll want to use caution. The roads may turn into ice rinks for a brief time during the morning before the change over to all snow in the afternoon.  We’re still looking at about an inch to two inches of snow tomorrow for the Twin Cities with higher amounts across west-central and northwest Minnesota.

RS

New Year’s Eve winter mess?

Looking ahead towards New Year’s Eve, there is a chance that this next weather system could cause a real travel headache for New Year’s Eve plans that you may have.  The GFS forecast model is indicating well over an inch of water, which would equate out to over a foot of snow, however, it appears that enough warm air will mix in to create a mix of rain/snow/ice.  You may also notice the tight isobars, which indicate strong winds with the low pressure center that will move along the Minnesota/Iowa border by next Friday night.  This one is looking pretty ugly and I advise you watch for updates if you have to travel.  You may be better off staying home and not risking it if this storm is as advertised, but it’s still a ways out.

RS