TGIS! (Thank God It's Spring)

What an absolute treat we had for weather on Sunday. No forecast model even came close to predicting a 60 degree day, let alone 50 degrees. However, I don't think many people will be complaining about this miscalculation. The Twin Cities official high temp of 64° as well as Eau Claire, Wisconsin's high of 66° were record-breaking. It was a morale-boosting day as many people took advantage of getting outside and soaking it all in. A walk, followed by cleaning out the gunk on the garage floor that had accumulated all winter was on my agenda. The foot of snow we had at the beginning of March is all but gone. All that's left are a few small snow piles on areas that don't see much sunlight or are tucked away in low-lying areas. The Twin Cities metro area saw roughly an inch of snow melt per day from March 1 to March 12.

This unexpected warmth has triggered an accelerated snow melt and revised flood forecasts from the National Weather Service. Many river towns/cites around the Twin Cities are going to see minor to moderate flooding. Ice jamming is going to be a common occurrence this spring. As of Sunday night, an ice jam was reported along the Minnesota River near Henderson that triggered a flash flood warning for the overnight hours.

AT 716 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT REPORTED AN ICE JAM ON THE
MINNESOTA RIVER APPROXIMATELY A HALF MILE TO A MILE DOWNSTREAM
FROM THE TOWN OF HENDERSON. AREAS NEAR STATE HIGHWAY 19 INCLUDING
SIBLEY COUNTY HIGHWAY 6 LEADING NORTH OUT OF HENDERSON AND STATE
HIGHWAY 93 SOUTH OF HENDERSON MAY BE AFFECTED BY FLOODING DUE TO
THIS ICE JAM. RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG THESE ROADS SHOULD PAY CLOSE
ATTENTION FOR CHANGES IN THE RIVER LEVELS.

Red River Update. For Fargo, North Dakota residents, the Red River is expected to reach a level on Friday night of 38 feet, which would make it the forth largest crest on record if the numbers hold. The river will continue to fluctuate around this level during the upcoming weeks, so I am concerned that the river could rise to 40 feet when it's all said and done.


This week's outlook. Dry weather and at or above average temps will continue into this week with rain chances coming Tuesday (20%) as a disturbance moves through and Thursday night (30%) when a cold front moves through the state. As the GFS model above indicates, we may be starting our weekend on a soggy note as Saturday could bring us a good chance of a rain/snow mix. We are very close to the rain/snow line, represented by the pink line. As we get closer to Saturday, the forecast models will become more defined. Any precip will not help out with flooding. .75 or 1 inch of rain could prove to be disasterous for residents along rivers. Let's hope we don't see much rain for a while!

Red River flooding and weekend update

Well, what a beautiful week it was! A nice, sunny stretch of temperatures around 40 degrees. Just warm enough to crack open a car window to get some fresh air, or take advantage of a peaceful walk. As you have seen from looking outside, we have lost much of our snow pack. Snow lovers fret as they are now on borrowed time to get the most out of their winter activities. Dare we see some patches of dormant grass already? If not for the snow, we may have seen temperatures 10 or 15 degrees warmer this week and borderline shorts weather! Much of the sun energy this time of the year is used to melt the lowest layers of the snow.



It has been very dry month of February across Minnesota with most places seeing less than an inch of precipitation. This has aided in the decrease of widespread flooding concerns across the state.



Change in the air? It looks like our streak of dry days are about to come to an end. The GFS forecast model above is showing some rain moving into the area for Saturday. The pink line, called the "540 line" in the meteorological world, is the rain/snow line. We will stay in the warm sector, so the precip will fall as rain. Some of the roads may become slick as temps will fall below freezing as the sun sets Saturday. Take it easy out there if you must drive. Sunday looks like the better day of the two as the rain moves out of the area and sunshine returns.

The updated spring flooding outlook came out for south central Minnesota and eastern North Dakota from the North Central River Forecast Center. With the lack of precipitation over the last month, the probabilities of major flooding along the Minnesota and Mississippi rivers are low. The exception here is the Mississippi River at Hastings - there's about a 70% chance of the river reaching a flood stage of 18 feet.



That's the good news, now the bad news. Our friends that live along the Red River are still likely to experience severe flooding due significant rainfalls last fall and a greater, and heavier snow pack this winter. The city of Fargo will likely receive the brunt of the flooding as flooding will be imminent within 90 days. There's a greater than 98% chance the the river will crest to major levels at 30 feet. Last week, Fargo Mayor Dennis Walaker declared a state of emergency for the city. Citizens should already begin preparations for sandbagging and moving valuables to higher ground. If there is any positive news, the river in Fargo does not appear to reach the 2009 level of 40.84 feet. Only a 30% chance of this happening.





Next week's outlook: The weather pattern becomes more active as we will see rain chances increase Tuesday and into the middle of the week. Temperatures in the mid-40s throughout the week.

Spring Flooding

The big weather story today is the updated flood outlooks for the rivers that flow throughout Minnesota from the National Weather Service in Chanhassen. The real concern is the Red River that separates Minnesota and the Dakotas. As with past years, the Fargo and Grand Forks areas see the biggest blunt of the flooding. Flooding is a regular occurrence in this part of the country, but the severity varies every year due to differences in snow melt rates and the total snow depth.

According to the NWS, there is about a 75-80 % chance of major flooding along the Red River at East Grand Forks:

Focus your attention on the CS - the black line with triangles. CS is the estimate based on current conditions, whereas HS uses historical data to plot estimates.

Major flooding in Fargo is pretty much a guarantee sadly for area residents:


Closer to home, the NWS in Chanhassen has provided updated information on the flood outlook in the Twin Cities. If you live along one of the large rivers, you may want to take note at the likelihood of at least moderate to major flooding expected in most areas.

The flooding probabilties will likely change as we get closer to the Spring thaw. After reading the information above you may be in a state of panic, but remember that temperatures and amount of precipitation and type (rain will cause a fast snow melt) will have a big influence on flooding. In the southwest corner of Minnesota, we have 15-20 inches of snow on the ground.



If this area receives significantly more snow this winter, we could be dealing with a serious issue when this snow melt travels upstream. As spring arrives, the southern part of the state warms up faster than the rest of the state, so this could dictate an earlier flooding event. It's been a rather odd Minnesota winter in that the southern part of the state has more snow than the north.

Temperatures are predicted to remain at around normal for the next month for most of the region with some above average temperatures around Lake Superior.

This is definitely good news as we will see normal melt going into March. Above average temps would be a receipe for disaster considering this area will likely see more snow before the winter ends.

GFS forecast models are hinting at 2-4 inches of snow for the southeast part of Minnesota during the next five days, but fortunately it's away from areas that don't need the snow:


The next flood outlook will be issued at the beginning of March. This will be one for sure to watch, especially for interests along the Mississippi, Minnesota, and Red Rivers.