Hot start to July

July started out of the gates at a record pace with very mild temperatures - well above the norm for this time of the year.  During the first six days of the month, high temperatures have been 12 to 15 degrees above normal across the southeastern part of Minnesota.  The Twin Cities has already seen two 100-degree plus days this month, which has not happened in 24 years.

As of July 9th, the average high temperature in the Twin Cities is a sweltering 94.7 degrees.  The typical maximum temperature is around 83 degrees.

The Climate Prediction Center seems to think the hot trend will continue throughout July.  It is forecasting above normal temperatures over the next 14 days for the northern two-thirds of Minnesota.

What is responsible for this mild, dry weather pattern?  A dome of high pressure is located out in the Rockies.  Northwest winds in the upper levels of the atmosphere will draw in the warmth across the state.

Right now, it appears that Wednesday and Thursday have a chance of seeing 90 degree temperatures in the Twin Cities.  Seeing a 90 in for a high temperature this weekend would not be out of the question either.

The heat will stick around into next week as temperatures remain well above average.  There is a pretty good chance that July 2012 will go down in the books as the warmest July on record.  The warmest July on record is 81.4 degrees in 1936.

RS

More records likely broken today

Another day of record warmth is on tap across Minnesota as we are looking at temperatures well into the 60s for most of the southern half of the state.  Here are some record events yesterday, according to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT TWIN CITIES MN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 1878.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES WAS TIED AT ST CLOUD MN TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 1977.

Some of the maximum temperature records in jeopardy today include the Twin Cities (61 degrees in 1902), St. Cloud (60 degrees in 1902), and Rochester (60 degrees in 1990).

Rain will move into the area overnight, but will only last through the morning hours before we stay warm all this week with temperatures approaching 70 degrees across the area.

RS

Rare winter chill down towards week’s end

It appears the trend of above normal temperatures will come to end briefly by the end of this week.  It may come as a shock since we have been spoiled by the ridiculously nice winter we’ve had so far this season.  January was running some seven to ten degrees above normal across much of Minnesota, and finished as the eighth warmest in the Twin Cities since 1872.  Minneapolis-St. Paul averaged 23.3 degrees for the month, or 7.7 degrees above normal.  St. Cloud averaged 19.8 degrees, or 8.2 degrees above normal.

Across the Twin Cities, February has started off much the same way - mild.

Both the GFS and European models depict a low centered over Hudson Bay in Canada driving Arctic air south into the Upper Midwest by the weekend.  There is a pretty good likelihood that some parts of Minnesota, especially the Arrowhead Region, will see below zero readings at times between Friday and early Sunday.

GFS:

Euro:

This weather maker will NOT bring any snow along with it.  In fact, I don’t really see any significant snow for at least a week.  Winter sports lovers days may be numbered as average temperatures begin to climb as we head towards spring.  By the end of February, the average high temperature is 33 degrees - just beyond freezing.

RS

Winter with a touch of Spring

Late Sunday into Monday, we experienced the unfamiliar sight this season of snow. You know, the flakey, white stuff, remember it? While most of the Twin Cities saw one to three inches of snow from this last storm system, it was enough to make for a very slow morning commute on Monday. Freezing mist fell most of Sunday before transitioning to snow late in the day, creating a glazed layer of ice on roadways in addition to snow accumulations to create slippery conditions. At least 100 vehicle spin-outs were reported across the metro. Hopefully you were not one of them! 1.9 inches of snow was recorded officially, bringing our seasonal total up to 14.4 inches. This last snowfall also pushed us beyond the mark for the least amount of seasonal snow of 14.2 inches set in the Dust Bowl era of 1931-32. We should add on to the total as we head into February, and then the second-snowiest month, March. We are not completely out of the clear for January snow. Friday is appearing to be more active, as well as the middle part of the upcoming weekend. It is difficult to pin down exact totals right now, but it does appear to be enough to slow things down a bit for those doing some weekend traveling. Cannot rule out at least an inch or two of snow during each snow episode, but these are not shaping up to be major storms.

 

Once we get past the snow, temperatures will noticeably warm up starting Thursday. The first stretch of mild air will last through the weekend. It will be followed by another surge of southerly winds on Tuesday. High temperatures will be running a good 10 to 15 degrees above normal at times during the next seven days. Can someone remind me what season it is again? One thing is for sure, it has made for a very short winter thus far. Hard to believe it's almost February!

 

It goes along with the month we are having. Since the beginning of January, we have been above average for high temperatures an incredible 21 out of 25 days! Forget winter, we jumped from fall right into spring! Another sign spring is around the corner? Minnesota Twins pitchers and catchers will be reporting in Fort Myers, Florida for Spring Training on February 18th.

Enjoy "March-uary" or whatever term you would like to call January. Perhaps blogging about the weather has kept the snow away? If that is the case, I could make a lot of good friends that dislike snow very quickly. "Old Man Winter" has certainly been in hibernation this season.

RS

Week in review: Record high temperatures on Thursday

A warm front pushed through Minnesota on Thursday, bringing along with it record-breaking temperatures for many locations across the state.

Some parts of southwest Minnesota saw temperature soar into the 60s.  The highest temperature in the state this day was from an automated station near Canby in Yellow Medicine County that recorded 63 degrees.  Around the area, it was 62 degrees at Marshall, and 61 at both Milan and Madison.  According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, there has never been a 60 degree temperature recorded during the first week of January in Minnesota's modern climate record.  The warmest it has ever been during this time period in January before Thursday was 59 degrees, occurring on January 7, 2003 in Amboy, MN.  The all-time record high temperature for any day in January is 69 degrees, occurring January 24, 1981 in Montevideo.

The warmth also extended across the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Duluth, International Falls, and Brainerd all saw record high temperatures.

With a bit of cloud cover, the Twin Cities fell short of breaking the record of 47 degrees set back in 1885, over 125 years ago!  The temperature climbed to 45 degrees.  Since the beginning of January, we have been running well above average for daytime temperatures.  In some cases, over 20 degrees.  We normally should be in the low 20s this time of the year.

The Twin Cities followed up this historic day for many parts of Minnesota with another day of mild weather.  Just when you thought 45 degrees was warm, the mercury climbed another degree on Friday to 46 degrees.  Bill McAuliffe (@billmcauliffe) of the Star Tribune posted this note on Twitter:

6 days into Jan Twin Cities, first back-to-back highs 45 or higher since 2006. (Those were Jan 26-27.) #stribwx #mnwinter

The warmth is not unprecedented.  According to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen on this day (January 7th) in 2003:

Record warmth over Minnesota. Many places reach the 50's including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning.

RS

Warm weather ahead; Christmas snow looks less likely

A mild week is on tap for next week as high temperatures will be running above average through Christmas.  We could be in the 40s on Sunday with temperatures in the 30s as the week’s theme.

With the warm air, this will keep the snow chances low through the end of the week.  The GFS is not suggesting any snow through Christmas Eve based on the latest model run:

The European model was keeping a pre-Christmas dusting of snow in the forecast as of last night’s model run.  Still awaiting the mid-day Saturday model run.  This will be last chance of snow.  Based on the mild temperature profiles, I‘m favoring the GFS at this moment.  The odds of a snowless Christmas are looking better each day.

While we had nowhere to dump snow last year, it’s a whole different animal this year.  Lawns are being to green from the recent rainfall on Wednesday, and golf courses have the added benefit of staying open longer this year.  On the other hand, it hurts businesses that depend on snow – snow removal services and retailers, snowmobile dealers, and sporting good retailers of winter equipment and gear. In already tough economic times, this certainly is not welcome.

RS

Warm Thanksgiving across Minnesota

It was an unusually warm Thanksgiving across much of Minnesota as many locations saw record high temperatures for the day.  Redwood Falls reached 66 degrees, just two degrees shy of the state record for the date of 68 degrees set at Wheaton in 1984.  It was also the fourth warmest Thanksgiving in Twin Cities history.

According to the MPR WeatherTalk blog, these locations across the state tied or broke records for November 24th:

• 65 degrees, Canby
• 64 degrees, Tracy
• 61 degrees, Austin
• 60 degrees, Rochester
• 59 degrees (tied), Minneapolis-St. Paul
• 57 degrees, Fargo-Moorhead
• 55 degrees (tied), Detroit Lakes

Our Thanksgiving weather goes along with the theme this week of warm weather.  The week started off cool, but between November 23rd and November 25th (last three days), the Twin Cities is running almost 20 degrees above normal for high temperatures.  The trend is the same for much of southern Minnesota.  What season is it again?

RS

Happy Thanksgiving! Will it be a record setting one?

Happy Thanksgiving to everyone out there!  This post will look at the climatology on the day that we give thanks.

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Group, a typical Thanksgiving Day in the Twin Cities has high temperatures in the 30s, and at least a bit of filtered sunshine.  This year will atypical as high temperatures will be approaching 60 degrees in the Twin Cities!  I have little doubt that we will see temperatures in the 55 to 60 degree range with just a few high clouds in the area.  With last weekend’s snow pack pretty much gone, the sun’s energy will be used to warm the surface.  For now, I am going with a forecast of 59 degrees in the metro.  If this was to happen, it would tie the record for November 24th set in 1990.  The most recent mildest Thanksgiving happened in 1998 when the mercury hit 58 degrees in the Twin Cities.  As for the warmest Thanksgiving, it is 62 degrees, set in 1914, and later tied in 1922.

A Thanksgiving with temperatures above 50 degrees is a rare event in the Twin Cities as it has occurred just eight times since 1891.  Thursday’s setup will feature southerly winds pulling warm air into the Upper Midwest as the upper-level jet stream lifts into southern Ontario, Canada.  Some locations across far southern Minnesota will likely see 60 degree readings during the afternoon.

This time last year, there was little snow on the ground across the Twin Cities with the most in Scott County.  Across northern Minnesota, it was a different story as there was significant snow on the ground north of a Brainerd line.

Snow is commonplace across the state on Thanksgiving.  Historically, one in three Thanksgivings have at least one inch of snow on the ground.  In 1993, a Thanksgiving Day Blizzard affected central, western, and south central Minnesota, with heavy snow across most of Minnesota.  Over a foot of snow accumulated over west central Minnesota, and snowfall in excess of six inches or greater occurred north of a line from Bricelyn, in Faribault County, to the Twin Cities.  MSP picked up 4.3 inches of snow this day.

This could be one for the record books!  Enjoy your Thanksgiving with family and friends.

RS