Record July in the books, and a special note to all

As we finish July 2012, it will go down as one of the warmest months on record.  It is the second warmest July on record in the Twin Cities with an average temperature of 80.2 degrees.

Another distinction during the month was that the high temperature in the Twin Cities never dipped below 80 degrees.  This is the first time in recorded history it has occurred.

The jet stream has been located across southern Canada, which has allowed very warm air to be pumped in from the south and west for most of the summer.  The placement of the jet stream has brought severe weather, including tornadoes, to Canada, while Minnesota has been tornado-free in July.  It has also been quiet across the United States with only 23 tornadoes reported, according to the National Severe Storms Laboratory in Norman, Oklahoma.

It appears, if the Climate Prediction Center’s forecast for August is correct, that above normal temperatures will continue to be seen across the region.

Will August be just as wacky as July?  Only time will tell.  The severe weather season should begin to wind down as we head into fall.  As a result of the lower probabilities of severe weather expected in August, I have decided to suspend my mobile internet access for the storm chasing laptop.  With this decision, live streaming chase video will not be available for the remainder of the thunderstorm season.  It was a difficult decision, but with a quiet weather pattern, Internet access that goes unused becomes expensive.  This weather hobby is all on my dime, and I do not receive any income from related activities.  I am going to do some reflection during the fall and winter months on a return to storm chasing in 2013.  With changes in my personal life, it becomes tougher to fit chasing into the schedule.  Spending time with those I care about takes a higher priority.  Whatever happens, I have enjoyed the five years going after storms and watching the skies.  It has been a fun ride!

RS

Week in review and a look ahead to next week

Monday saw the first severe thunderstorms of the year across Minnesota to end the winter season.  The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities determined that an EF-0 touched down across Waseca and Le Sueur Counties, impacting the town of Elysian the hardest.

This was the second earliest tornado recorded in the state’s history by one day.  The tornado was on the low-end (I avoid the term “weak tornadoes”.  ALL tornadoes are capable of causing damage and harming people) and embedded within straight-line winds, making it difficult for meteorologists to detect, thus may explain why no warning was issued when it occurred.

The record-breaking heat wave ended by Tuesday as a cold front moved through the area.  8 out of the 10 days between March 10 and 19th saw new records at MSP.  Included in this stretch was the earliest 80 degree reading ever recorded in the Twin Cities, and a record seven days of 70 degree or higher temperatures for March.

Through March 23rd, we are already on our way to the warmest March ever with the average temperature over three degrees warmer than the highest mark set in 1910.

From Bill Stein at The Minnesota Forecaster:

New dew point records were also established in March:

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, as noted by Dr. Mark Seeley before the recent warmth, "The highest March dewpoint in the Twin Cities climate record is 60 degrees F on March 24, 1945."

• On March 17th, 19th, and 22nd, a dew point of 60 degrees was reported on hourly observations at Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport, tying the March dew point record.
• March 17th is now the earliest date in the calendar year that a 60 degree dew point has been recorded in the Twin Cities.

Despite a cool down with a couple fronts moving in early next week, temperatures will remain above normal (45 to 49 degrees) for the week with highs at least into the 50s.

Thunderstorm threat will increase for the start of the week with the best chance of storms for Minnesota coming on Tuesday.  The parameters for severe weather do not look all that impressive for the state Tuesday.  The greatest threat for any severe weather will be Monday to our south and southwest across South Dakota and Nebraska.  With the best wind shear over northeast Nebraska, tornadoes will be possible with any supercells expected to develop that day.

We should dry out after Tuesday night and should remain that way until next Saturday when another disturbance moves through the area.

RS

March Madness

This unusual heat wave for this time of the year has broken records already this week east of the Rockies as temperatures have felt more like late April with the mercury reaching as high as 80 degrees across parts of southern Minnesota.  In the Twin Cities, our normal temperature for this time of the year is 41 degrees, and we are already 11 degrees above normal for March.  We are on pace for the warmest March on record According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, the greatest number of maximum temperatures at or above 70 in March is five such days, which occurred in 1910.  That year also happened to be the warmest March on record with an average temperature of 45 degrees.

Friday was the warmest day of the heat spell as highs nearly topped 80 degrees officially in the Twin Cities.  Officially, it was 79 degrees, but airports around the metro did record temperatures in the 80s as Flying Cloud Airport in Eden Prairie was the leader at 82 degrees.  80 degrees or more has occurred previously in the Twin Cities during the month with March 23rd being the earliest day of the year.  This record will likely be broken today.

With Friday’s 79 degrees smashing the old record of 71 set in 1930, five out of the last seven days have set new high temperature records in MSP.  The record for consecutive days is five, which occurred five different times: June 26-June 30, 1931, June 16-June 20, 1933, July 10-July 14, 1936, February 16-February 20, 1981, and the last stretch between March 4-March 8, 2000.  The trend in-between record dates certainly indicates the climate is much warmer now than a half century ago.

The Twin Cities should see it’s earliest 80 degree reading Saturday as I’m projecting temperatures to reach around 82 degrees.  Some clouds may hamper maximum sunlight late in the day during peak heating, keeping the air a bit cooler.  Temperatures will drop off next week as an unsettled wetter pattern arrives on our doorstep.

Heavier thunderstorms appear possible on Monday, but the dynamics for a severe weather outbreak do not appear all that favorable.  The Storm Prediction Center did go ahead and issue a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday across south central and east central Minnesota.  With these storms, we are looking at hail less than an inch in diameter, and gusty winds as the main threats.

RS

More records likely broken today

Another day of record warmth is on tap across Minnesota as we are looking at temperatures well into the 60s for most of the southern half of the state.  Here are some record events yesterday, according to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 66 DEGREES WAS SET AT TWIN CITIES MN TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 59 SET IN 1878.

A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 54 DEGREES WAS TIED AT ST CLOUD MN TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 54 SET IN 1977.

Some of the maximum temperature records in jeopardy today include the Twin Cities (61 degrees in 1902), St. Cloud (60 degrees in 1902), and Rochester (60 degrees in 1990).

Rain will move into the area overnight, but will only last through the morning hours before we stay warm all this week with temperatures approaching 70 degrees across the area.

RS

Week in review: Record high temperatures on Thursday

A warm front pushed through Minnesota on Thursday, bringing along with it record-breaking temperatures for many locations across the state.

Some parts of southwest Minnesota saw temperature soar into the 60s.  The highest temperature in the state this day was from an automated station near Canby in Yellow Medicine County that recorded 63 degrees.  Around the area, it was 62 degrees at Marshall, and 61 at both Milan and Madison.  According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, there has never been a 60 degree temperature recorded during the first week of January in Minnesota's modern climate record.  The warmest it has ever been during this time period in January before Thursday was 59 degrees, occurring on January 7, 2003 in Amboy, MN.  The all-time record high temperature for any day in January is 69 degrees, occurring January 24, 1981 in Montevideo.

The warmth also extended across the Arrowhead of Minnesota.  Duluth, International Falls, and Brainerd all saw record high temperatures.

With a bit of cloud cover, the Twin Cities fell short of breaking the record of 47 degrees set back in 1885, over 125 years ago!  The temperature climbed to 45 degrees.  Since the beginning of January, we have been running well above average for daytime temperatures.  In some cases, over 20 degrees.  We normally should be in the low 20s this time of the year.

The Twin Cities followed up this historic day for many parts of Minnesota with another day of mild weather.  Just when you thought 45 degrees was warm, the mercury climbed another degree on Friday to 46 degrees.  Bill McAuliffe (@billmcauliffe) of the Star Tribune posted this note on Twitter:

6 days into Jan Twin Cities, first back-to-back highs 45 or higher since 2006. (Those were Jan 26-27.) #stribwx #mnwinter

The warmth is not unprecedented.  According to the National Weather Service in Chanhassen on this day (January 7th) in 2003:

Record warmth over Minnesota. Many places reach the 50's including the Twin Cities. St. James hit 59 and the Twin Cities reached 51. Nine golf courses were open in the Twin Cities and 100 golfers were already at the Sundance Golf Course in Maple Grove in the morning.

RS

Getting closer to a December record

The official reading at MSP airport from Monday’s snowfall was 4.6”, which brings the monthly total to 28.8”. Track the total here. We are now 4.4” shy of tying the December record that was set in 1969.

The snow headed our way for Thursday and Christmas Eve doesn’t look all that impressive right now. Looks to be about a half inch of snow for most locations. With all the snow we’ve had, we need the break. There is simply no place to put any more snow. It’s already become dangerous trying to navigate residential streets that have snow banks obstructing the view at intersections. Sometimes it feels like Russian Roulette. It’s just one more thing to worry about in life along with work deadlines, holiday shopping, distractions, etc.

Just one other note. I’m quoted in the Shakopee Valley News about the Great Blizzard of 2010 that brought 21.5 inches of snow to Shakopee. That snow total was taken by yours truly. Apparently the city’s snow total was recognized by national media outlets, such as CNN. Here is an online version of the newspaper edition where I’m noted for you to check out:

I’m honored to be part of a historic event. Never did I think when I took the reading that it would be such a big deal. I’m a little surprised at the total I arrived at, but I have no doubts that the 21.5 inches was a very good approximation to what we got. Measuring snow is truly one of the greatest challenges as a weather observer. There’s blowing and drifting and you really have to use good judgment and react to the situation appropriately. In this case, I took far more measurements before doing an average to ensure I was dealing with a greater level of accuracy. I know there are some naysayers out there, but I did the job to the best of my abilities in a very difficult situation. I would do it all over again if I had too. It’s the curiosity of how much snow is there that interests me.

That’s it for now.

RS