Minnesota Severe Weather Awareness Week 2013

This week is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota.  While we have been plagued by snow and cold lately, now is a good time to prepare for severe thunderstorms as we head towards the summer months.  On Thursday, there will be a statewide afternoon and evening tornado drill at 1:45 and 6:55 p.m., respectively.

An understanding of basic terminology is fundamental for severe weather safety.  Here are some terms you will see in the media, from the National Weather Service, and on this blog:

The Storm Prediction Center issues an outlook leading up to when dangerous weather is likely.  These outlooks may be issued as far out as eight days prior to the event.  For a better understanding of these outlooks, this post does an excellent job explaining the Storm Prediction Center products in-depth.

When conditions become favorable for organized severe thunderstorms and/or tornadoes to develop, a watch is issued by the Storm Prediction Center.  It means weather conditions are favorable for dangerous weather to occur. In other words, a "watch" means watch out for what the weather could do, and be ready to act accordingly. You may wish to alter or have a back-up plan for any outdoor activities or travel.  A typical watch duration is six to seven hours, but it may be cancelled, replaced, or re-issued as required.

A warning is issued by the local National Weather Service office when the weather event is imminent or occurring somewhere in the defined warning area, and that people need to take shelter as soon as possible.  These warnings can last as long as 45 minutes to an hour.  New to 2013 is the use of “impact based warnings” by the National Weather Service to emphasize threat and impacts to improve public response.  More information can be found in the video below:

Do you have enough “safety nets” in place for receiving these weather alerts?  Every person should have multiple means other than the outdoor warning sirens for being aware of approaching severe weather.  As I have stated many times before, sirens are only meant to be heard OUTDOORS as a means to get inside a sturdy structure when sirens are sounded.  In addition to the outdoor siren, conventional NOAA Weather Radio should be in every home, much like smoke detectors.  These radios can be set to alert you in standby mode to all or certain hazards within a county or counties, especially during hours of sleep.  It also provides general weather information 24 hours a day, seven days a week.

Many cell phones now feature the ability to receive Wireless Emergency Alerts (WEA), which allow push notifications when the user is within range of an affected hazard area. There are still compatibility issues with this system, mainly with AT&T’s new high-speed LTE network, so I can not recommend this system at this time until it works with all of the phones on the market.  For those who are unable to benefit from WEA, here are a couple apps which work nicely:

• iMap Weather Radio ($9.99, Android & iOS)
• American Red Cross Tornado Warning & Alert App (Free, Android & iOS)

I personally prefer iMap Weather Radio as it allows selectable alerts from virtually every weather hazard possible.  Another benefit is that it uses GPS tracking to only alert when the phone is within the watch, warning, or advisory boundaries, unlike NOAA Weather Radio, which is currently limited to entire counties.  This app also features basic radar and Storm Prediction Center outlooks.  For $9.99, it is a bargain in my opinion considering the cost of weather radios run $30 or more.

Some tornado statistics.  From 1950 to 2010, Minnesota averaged 27 tornadoes a year.  Over 75% of the tornadoes during that period occurred in the months of May, June, and July.  The majority of tornadoes happen between 4 and 6 p.m.  When it comes to tornado intensity, Minnesota tornadoes tend to be on the low-end, with more than half being F/EF-0 and F/EF-1 strength.  The last F/EF-5 tornado in the state was in June 1992, affecting the southwestern town of Chandler.  An Enhanced Fujita scale table is found here.

If you have any severe weather or safety questions, please post them below!

RS

Active pattern ahead for Memorial Day weekend

A cold front will move through the state today that will dump heavy rains across Minnesota.

The front is expected to stall near the Twin Cities during the overnight which will be the focal point for all the rainfall.  Some places near the Twin Cities and southwest could see upwards of two inches of rain today.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Twin Cities to southwest Minnesota, however I think the rains will be the bigger story.  There might be a few stronger storms, but the overall severe weather threat is pretty marginal today.  The lack of rich Gulf moisture and the upper-level wind setup is not favorable for severe storms.

Cloud cover and morning rain is ongoing across the state.  This will be the theme throughout the day.

The heavy rain is expected to push make it’s way into the Twin Cities after 8 p.m. tonight, according to a couple of the high resolution forecast models.  Some of the storms across southwest Minnesota may be strong.

Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday is looking like much of the same.  There will also be the possibility of severe thunderstorms on Sunday.  Stay tuned for further developments on this weekend’s weather!

RS

Severe Weather Awareness Week

This week (April 16-20) is Severe Weather Awareness Week in Minnesota.  According to Minnesota Department of Public Safety’s Homeland Security and Emergency Management, “The Severe Weather Awareness Week campaign helps teach Minnesotans about weather hazards and provides resources to minimize the risks associated with severe weather.”  In the past 10 years, more than 40 people have died and dozens more injured as a result of weather-related events in Minnesota (not including motor vehicles).  This blog post will present an overview on what to expect this week as part of Severe Weather Awareness, explain terminology used in weather alerts, and provide alternative methods to traditional media sources for receiving these alerts to stay safe during severe weather.

On Thursday, April 19th, sirens will sound twice as part of a simulated tornado warning.  Once at 1:45 PM, and again at 6:55 PM (all Minnesota counties in the evening except: Aitkin, Becker, Carlton, Hubbard, Itasca, Kanabec, Kittson, Lincoln, Norman, Otter Tail, and Yellow Medicine).  This will provide an opportunity to review action plans at work, school, and home in the event of a natural disaster, such as a tornado.  Sirens will sound for about three minutes.  When the sirens are activated, NOAA Weather Radios will sound an alert tone for a tornado warning.

So what does a watch and warning mean?  A watch means weather conditions are favorable for dangerous weather to occur.  In other words, a "watch" means watch out for what the weather could do, and be ready to act accordingly.  You may wish to alter or have a “Plan B” for any outdoor activities or travel.  A warning means the weather event is imminent or occurring somewhere in the defined warning area and that people need to take shelter as soon as possible.  In 2010, Minnesota had the most tornadoes of any state in the United States with 113.  Tornadoes can occur any time of day or night, but often occur in the late afternoon or evening.  A tornado watch is issued by the National Weather Service when weather conditions are favorable for tornadoes and persons should remain alert for approaching storms.  A tornado warning is issued when a tornado has been sighted or indicated by weather radar.  Take shelter immediately!  Whether a tornado has been radar indicated or confirmed, people should NOT be outdoors looking for the tornado.  There’s a chance it’s already on your doorstep, and by then it’s too late to take cover - leading to injury or possibly death!

How can I stay alert of the latest weather conditions?  I always believe that everyone should have two sources for receiving weather alerts other than outdoor sirens.  An outdoor siren was NOT designed to be heard indoors, and it should NOT be your primary means of warning to take shelter.  Counties and cities own the sirens and therefore decide how and when to activate them, not the National Weather Service.  All sirens are not the same.  There are many different policies by counties and cities.  Some will activate them across the entire county for a tornado warning only.  Others will activate sirens countywide for tornado warnings and all severe thunderstorm warnings.  Some will activate sirens across the entire county for tornado warnings and severe thunderstorms that have winds of at least 70 or 75 MPH, while others will activate sirens only for portions of counties.  Also, local officials may sound the sirens anytime they believe severe weather is a threat, even if there is no warning from the National Weather Service.  In the Twin Cities, Dakota County activates the sirens for any severe thunderstorm warning as well.  A severe thunderstorm warning is issued when thunderstorm winds are indicated or measured to be 58 MPH or greater, and/or contain hail at least one-inch in diameter.  Scott County will typically activate outdoor warning sirens if a tornado warning is issued, according to Chris Weldon, Scott County Emergency Management Director.

Quite frankly, every home should have a NOAA Weather Radio.  They are as essential as smoke detectors in homes.  This is potentially a life-saving device.  The alert technology has been around well before the Internet boom and cell phones, but with enhancements along the way.  Depending on the features, these radios cost anywhere between $20 to $200.  Most brick and mortar retail stores carry these radios (RadioShack tends to have the largest selection), and can also be purchased from online retailers, such as Amazon, using keyword search “weather radio”.  These radios with battery backup are designed to be loud enough to wake you up during a severe weather emergency in the middle of the night, and programmable to broadcast the alert text from the weather service.  Radios with SAME (Specific Alert Message Encoding) technology allow the weather radio to broadcast alerts only for counties you specify using a six-digit code number.  SAME codes can be found here.  It is recommended to select a weather radio with the “Public Alert” certification.  These radio have met certain technical standards and come with many essential features.

There are dozens of radio transmitters covering Minnesota for receiving weather broadcasts.  NOAA weather Radio broadcasts on seven different frequencies, which are pre-configured in most radios as channels.  Nearly every location in the state should receive a good signal.  The one exception is north of Bemidji in Beltrami County near Red Lake.

With the increase in usage of smartphones, apps are becoming more sophisticated.  For iPhone users, iMap Weather Radio is a highly recommended app to alert of approaching hazardous weather for any location using GPS tracking.  When an alert is received, a loud “chirp” tone will sound, and type of alert will be announced.  More details can be found in a review I did here.  According to app maker Weather Decision Technologies, an Android version is currently in development.

Speaking of phones, CellWarn from Convective Development sends weather watches, warnings, and advisories to your email and/or cell phone for free (carrier text message rates may apply).  The free service includes delivery options such as severe thunderstorm watches and warnings, tornado watches and warnings, winter watches, warnings, and advisories, and severe thunderstorm outlooks.

Social media is also a great way to stay informed.  My weather-related Twitter account, @ShakopeeWeather, and Facebook page post warnings for Minnesota as they come in from the National Weather Service.  Other accounts such as @iembot_mpx, posts all Twin Cities National Weather Service products, and @severewarn, posts warnings issued anywhere in the United States.  From my experience, most meteorologists are active on these social media sites during severe weather events, and are prompt with posting weather information pertaining to a dangerous situation.

As we get deeper into the severe weather season across Minnesota, I encourage the general public to start preparing this week for the thunderstorm season by establishing access to alert services and understanding the different weather alerts issued by the National Weather Service.  It will help eliminate any confusion during an actual emergency.  If you would like to get involved as a storm spotter in Minnesota (there are never enough), class schedules are posted here for outstate residents, and here for Twin Cities residents.

Additional information for Severe Weather Awareness Week:

• National Weather Service – Twin Cities
• Minnesota Department of Public Safety - Homeland Security and Emergency Management

RS

Week in review and a look ahead to next week

Monday saw the first severe thunderstorms of the year across Minnesota to end the winter season.  The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities determined that an EF-0 touched down across Waseca and Le Sueur Counties, impacting the town of Elysian the hardest.

This was the second earliest tornado recorded in the state’s history by one day.  The tornado was on the low-end (I avoid the term “weak tornadoes”.  ALL tornadoes are capable of causing damage and harming people) and embedded within straight-line winds, making it difficult for meteorologists to detect, thus may explain why no warning was issued when it occurred.

The record-breaking heat wave ended by Tuesday as a cold front moved through the area.  8 out of the 10 days between March 10 and 19th saw new records at MSP.  Included in this stretch was the earliest 80 degree reading ever recorded in the Twin Cities, and a record seven days of 70 degree or higher temperatures for March.

Through March 23rd, we are already on our way to the warmest March ever with the average temperature over three degrees warmer than the highest mark set in 1910.

From Bill Stein at The Minnesota Forecaster:

New dew point records were also established in March:

According to the Minnesota State Climatology Office, as noted by Dr. Mark Seeley before the recent warmth, "The highest March dewpoint in the Twin Cities climate record is 60 degrees F on March 24, 1945."

• On March 17th, 19th, and 22nd, a dew point of 60 degrees was reported on hourly observations at Minneapolis St. Paul International Airport, tying the March dew point record.
• March 17th is now the earliest date in the calendar year that a 60 degree dew point has been recorded in the Twin Cities.

Despite a cool down with a couple fronts moving in early next week, temperatures will remain above normal (45 to 49 degrees) for the week with highs at least into the 50s.

Thunderstorm threat will increase for the start of the week with the best chance of storms for Minnesota coming on Tuesday.  The parameters for severe weather do not look all that impressive for the state Tuesday.  The greatest threat for any severe weather will be Monday to our south and southwest across South Dakota and Nebraska.  With the best wind shear over northeast Nebraska, tornadoes will be possible with any supercells expected to develop that day.

We should dry out after Tuesday night and should remain that way until next Saturday when another disturbance moves through the area.

RS

March Madness

This unusual heat wave for this time of the year has broken records already this week east of the Rockies as temperatures have felt more like late April with the mercury reaching as high as 80 degrees across parts of southern Minnesota.  In the Twin Cities, our normal temperature for this time of the year is 41 degrees, and we are already 11 degrees above normal for March.  We are on pace for the warmest March on record According to the Minnesota Climatology Working Group, the greatest number of maximum temperatures at or above 70 in March is five such days, which occurred in 1910.  That year also happened to be the warmest March on record with an average temperature of 45 degrees.

Friday was the warmest day of the heat spell as highs nearly topped 80 degrees officially in the Twin Cities.  Officially, it was 79 degrees, but airports around the metro did record temperatures in the 80s as Flying Cloud Airport in Eden Prairie was the leader at 82 degrees.  80 degrees or more has occurred previously in the Twin Cities during the month with March 23rd being the earliest day of the year.  This record will likely be broken today.

With Friday’s 79 degrees smashing the old record of 71 set in 1930, five out of the last seven days have set new high temperature records in MSP.  The record for consecutive days is five, which occurred five different times: June 26-June 30, 1931, June 16-June 20, 1933, July 10-July 14, 1936, February 16-February 20, 1981, and the last stretch between March 4-March 8, 2000.  The trend in-between record dates certainly indicates the climate is much warmer now than a half century ago.

The Twin Cities should see it’s earliest 80 degree reading Saturday as I’m projecting temperatures to reach around 82 degrees.  Some clouds may hamper maximum sunlight late in the day during peak heating, keeping the air a bit cooler.  Temperatures will drop off next week as an unsettled wetter pattern arrives on our doorstep.

Heavier thunderstorms appear possible on Monday, but the dynamics for a severe weather outbreak do not appear all that favorable.  The Storm Prediction Center did go ahead and issue a slight risk of severe thunderstorms on Monday across south central and east central Minnesota.  With these storms, we are looking at hail less than an inch in diameter, and gusty winds as the main threats.

RS

Heavier storms this morning

Some stronger storms are making their way through the Twin Cities this morning.  Nothing severe, but Minneapolis-St. Paul and east suburbs may see some small hail out of this.  More storms are beginning to form to the southwest and will also pose a small hail threat.

RS