A few strong to severe thunderstorms mainly west and north of the Twin Cities today

A meandering frontal boundary across southern Minnesota will be the focus for thunderstorm activity on Friday.

Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible across central into southwestern Minnesota near a low pressure center.  A capping inversion is forecasted to break by the afternoon to allow storms to develop.

The high-resolution WRF model places heavy (severe?) thunderstorms across southwest Minnesota by 7 pm.  MSP is represented by the red dot.  Any thunderstorms that do develop across southern Minnesota will affect the Twin Cities after midnight, and will likely be a marginal severe weather threat.

Another one of the models paints the heaviest of the weather to the north, near the Lake Mille Lacs area.  So there is some disagreement within the models are where the storms will form today, therefore a broad area from east central into southwestern Minnesota will be highlighted for the threat of severe thunderstorms.

The main threats from any severe thunderstorms will be large hail and damaging winds.  Another factor will the heavy rains.  Between now and 6 am Saturday, one to two inches of rain is possible across the Northland.  This is an area that does not need anymore rain.  Duluth is still drying out from flooding, and water levels on the lakes and rivers that run through Aitkin County are high.

There is still a bit of uncertainty with today’s severe weather setup, but it is always a good idea to have a means of receiving weather alerts ready to go.

RS

Hot, with severe thunderstorms possible over the Northland

A warm front, or is this instance, a “hot” front will move to the International border by this evening.  This front will be the focus for thunderstorms, some of which will be severe across the north.  To the south of the front, very warm air will dominate the state today.

The greatest area of concern for severe thunderstorms is north of a St. Cloud line, but the focus for storm development will be near the warm and cold front intersection.

The Storm Prediction Center has indicated hail as the greatest threat today, with the purple area below as the area at risk.

Unlike yesterday’s setup, a tornado threat does exist today as an area of low pressure moves into the northwest portion of the state.  Areas northwest from Bemidji may see an isolated risk of a tornado during the early stages of severe weather.

The high-resolution WRF model at 7 pm below depicts a bow echo moving through the Northland tonight, with a secondary bowing mesoscale convective system forming near Fargo and moving southeastward.  The Fargo bow misses the Twin Cities to the north.

Further south, it is just going to be hot.  Dew points in the 70s will keep temperatures from reaching 100, but highs around 95 degrees should be doable today in the Twin Cities.  The mid 90s will dominate most of southern Minnesota.

A heat advisory is in effect for the southern half of Minnesota today until 10 pm as heat indices will top 100 by the afternoon.

Stay cool today!

RS

Severe weather possible Thursday

Warm and humid air will work it's way into Minnesota by Thursday, which will create an unstable air mass for thunderstorm development as a cold front moves through the area during the evening hours.

Isolated severe thunderstorms will be possible in the warm sector (behind the warm front and ahead of the cold front) across the southern two-thirds of Minnesota Thursday night.

The veering of winds is much more impressive with this system than the Sunday storm.  The upper, lower, and surface level winds are forecasted to be from the southwest, west, and southwest, respectively.

250 mb:

500 mb:

850 mb:

The wind shear profile seems to be favorable for tornadoes, and surface-based convection is likely.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see a tornado watch issued during the afternoon hours on Thursday.

You will want to keep an eye to the sky if you have Thursday outdoor activities, as this storm will mean business if we get the necessary daytime heating.

RS

Storms still set to arrive tonight

Storms are projected to develop late this afternoon across west central Minnesota and push through the state during the night ahead of a cold front sweeping through today.

All of the models are depicting a line of storms, some of which will be severe within embedded cells, lining up north to south across the state by the evening hours.

One inch or greater hail is the primary concern with these storms today, according to the Storm Prediction Center.

There is also an isolated tornado threat, mainly during storm initiation across a large portion of the state.  I still believe the greatest threat for tornadoes will be north of a Brainerd line.

Keep it tuned here for additional updates throughout the day!

RS

Severe weather likely to close out the weekend

A cold front is expected to sweep through Minnesota during the day Sunday, which will bring a good chance of thunderstorms, some severe, to the region.

Cold front position at 7 pm Sunday:

Out ahead of the front, conditions will be hot and muggy on Sunday.  Temperatures are forecasted to be in the mid-90s with dew points approaching 70 degrees.

Temps:

Dew point:

This will result in a very unstable atmosphere for thunderstorm development.  There will be more than enough energy for storm initiation once the cold front begins to move into the state.

The greatest risk for severe weather will be over the central and northern sections of Minnesota.  Roughly from the St. Cloud area, and northward.  However, an isolated severe storm is possible for the Twin Cities metro.

The overall primary concerns from the Sunday storms are large hail and damaging winds.  A tornado risk does exist closer to the intersection of the cold and warm fronts in northern Minnesota – Brainerd lakes vicinity and north.

If you are going to be out on the lake during the latter half of the weekend, make sure to have a NOAA Weather Radio with you, and keep an eye on the western horizon for darkening skies!

RS

Timing of the severe weather threat

A lifting warm front and an advancing cold front will set the stage today for severe thunderstorms as temperatures reach the 90s across the southern two-thirds of Minnesota and tropical dew points near 70.

Large hail and damaging winds will be the greatest threats from any storm.  The tornado risk is low due to unidirectional wind from the surface to upper-levels of the atmosphere.

Significant hail threat today:

Wind threat:

The hot temperatures along with the moisture in the area will be create a strongly unstable environment by the evening hours after peak daytime heating.  CAPE values near 3,000 J/kg and a lifted index around –10 will provide more than enough “juice” and lift to produce isolated to widely scattered severe thunderstorms during the latter part of the day.

CAPE:

Lifted Index:

As far as timing of the storms today, the forecast models seems to be all over the place, but I am favoring the thunderstorm activity to move through the Twin Cities late tonight into the early overnight hours.  Right now it appears storms will fire after 6 p.m. across western Minnesota, then slowly progress eastward towards the Twin Cities after nightfall.  The Twin Cities will be impacted sometime between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m.

Stay safe today if you have any outdoor plans, especially late in the day, then keep it tuned to Stormchaserschwartz.com and StormChaser Schwartz social media outlets for additional information today!

RS

Active pattern ahead for Memorial Day weekend

A cold front will move through the state today that will dump heavy rains across Minnesota.

The front is expected to stall near the Twin Cities during the overnight which will be the focal point for all the rainfall.  Some places near the Twin Cities and southwest could see upwards of two inches of rain today.

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a slight risk of severe thunderstorms from the Twin Cities to southwest Minnesota, however I think the rains will be the bigger story.  There might be a few stronger storms, but the overall severe weather threat is pretty marginal today.  The lack of rich Gulf moisture and the upper-level wind setup is not favorable for severe storms.

Cloud cover and morning rain is ongoing across the state.  This will be the theme throughout the day.

The heavy rain is expected to push make it’s way into the Twin Cities after 8 p.m. tonight, according to a couple of the high resolution forecast models.  Some of the storms across southwest Minnesota may be strong.

Thursday, Saturday, and Sunday is looking like much of the same.  There will also be the possibility of severe thunderstorms on Sunday.  Stay tuned for further developments on this weekend’s weather!

RS

Severe weather outbreak for metro and areas southeast today?

A possible severe thunderstorm situation is setting up for the central part of the United States today, including southern Minnesota.  Below is the area I depicted where the greatest threat of severe storms will be found today.

The Storm Prediction Center in it’s morning outlook placed much of southeastern Minnesota under a moderate risk (an elevated risk if you will) of severe thunderstorms, which includes the Twin Cities, Mankato, and Rochester.

Illustrated below is where the greatest tornado threat exists according to the Storm Prediction Center. The purple area is where a greater than 15 percent chance exist for tornadoes.

I’m still favor the Wisconsin side of the border for tornadoes today….Menomonie, Eau Claire, and La Crosse.

Bust potential.  The big question with today’s setup is whether we will get out of the clouds and receive the necessary daytime heating for thunderstorm development.  Some clearing is trying to take place across southern Minnesota, near the Iowa border.  If we are in the clouds all day, severe weather will be rather limited.  The tornadoes that have hit Minneapolis over the last several years proves you don’t need an ideal setup for tornadoes to form.

Keep an eye to the sky today!

RS