7/17/10 Chase: MN

On Saturday, July 17, 2010, severe storms ripped through the central part of Minnesota with hail, strong winds, and a few reports of tornadoes. Severe weather was anticipated this day as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had placed much of the southern half of Minnesota under a moderate risk of severe storms as early as Friday.

The early Saturday AM outlook from the SPC with the moderate (MDT) risk of severe storms outlined in red.

My initial chase target late Friday night/early Saturday morning was Benson, MN based on what the 4.0km WRF model was telling me. Storms started firing around the Alexandria and St. Cloud areas along I-94, north of a warm front, after the noon hour. It was a little surprising to see storms firing so early in the day and the proximity to the Twin Cities. That caught me off-guard a little bit with the differences in what the model data was telling me. This activity was east of what I felt were the greatest dynamics for tornadoes, so I asked myself how this could be happening. Going into Saturday morning, I expected to see storm development just east of the MN/ND/SD border sometime after 2 PM local time with movement to the east-southeast. Scraping my plans to head west, I began my trek up towards I-94 towards St. Cloud. Not long into my journey, a tornado watch was issued at around 12:30 PM until 8 PM, which included most of central MN. The watch got as close to the Cities as Wright Co., but a few of the immediate Twin Cities metro counties were added later as the watch boundaries were extended.

As I travelled towards the Albertville area on I-94, I started loosing confidence in this cell north and west of St. Cloud as it began to get so massive. Still north of I-94, this cell appeared to evolving into a heavy rain and hail producer with a funnel cloud report mixed in near Gull Lake around 12:45 PM. I’m not one who likes to sit underneath or punch into cores containing large hail. It damages your vehicle unnecessarily and jeopardizes my safety with the possibility of windows breaking and being injured by broken glass. Just don’t understand it, but that’s my prerogative, just as it is for those who drive or sit idle through it. How to chase is up to each individual. Digressing from that tangent - since these cells were outside of what I felt was the greatest dynamics for the possibility of a tornado, I decided to leave this cell and head back south and take US-12 out west to intercept some storms heading for Willmar. Based on CAPE values and wind shear, I took a gamble that these storms would intensify rapidly and possibly produce a tornado.

I caught up with some storms in Wright Co that I followed for an hour west to east from Cokato to near Buffalo before they died out. The storms near St. Cloud were still maintaining their intensity, so I decided to head north on Hwy 25 in Buffalo to check it out.

Cells near the I-94 corridor just before 2 PM producing large hail and heavy rains. (Image credit: Paul Huttner)

Around 2:30 PM, the St. Cloud storm was beginning to move south of I-94 and move in a southeasterly direction towards the Twin Cities as it picked up speed along the warm front that was slowly sagging to the south.

Storm cell at 2:39 PM with a hook near Sauk Centre on I-94. At this point, this cell would carry tornadic characteristics as it marched towards the Cities. (Image credit: Paul Huttner)

Made the decision to stay east of the cell and attempted to stay in front of it taking the State Highway 15 south exit on I-94 around 3:35-3:40 PM. The cell was tornado warned at 3:28 PM and heading in my direction. Greatest area of concern was around Eden Valley and Watkins. Attempting to cross in front of the cell so I could get in position on the backside of the cell before being dumped on with heavy rains in hail, I arrived near Kimball, MN around 3:45 PM.

Radar velocity scan of an area of rotation approaching the towns of Kimball and Kingston Township at about 3:45 PM. (Image credit: Paul Douglas)

Above are pictures taken from 3:44 to 3:46 PM from my phone inside the car near Kimball, MN looking north and west. It was a very mature supercell with strong updrafts and one report of 4.25” inch hail as it came through Sauk Center at 3:37 PM. Not a storm to be stuck standing in front of you.

Radar image at 4:16 PM when a tornado was reported southeast of Kingston Township (Image credit: Paul Huttner).

About a half hour later, I continued trekking south on Highway 15 through heavy rains, winds, and some pea to dime size hail as the activity moved through Kimball towards Kingston Township. Wanting to get out of the rain and get some photo opportunities I turned off onto a county road west of Kingston to spend some time with the Nikon camera.

These pictures were taken looking east from my position, which was just southwest of Kingston. As I began shooting pictures around 4:15 PM, a tornado was reported 2 miles southeast of town just a minute later. I could not locate the tornado from my position, but there definitely were a lot of low hanging clouds. In this high precipitation supercell, it was tough to get a clean look at much of anything this day. A local passed me by as I was taking pictures, and asked if I was a storm chaser and wanted to know what specifically is a wall cloud. I tried to explain to the best of my abilities without having a visual to show him and also not boring him with technical jargon. It’s nice to run into people that take an appreciation of the weather and want to learn more about it. Although I didn’t recommend it at the time, hopefully this person takes enough interest to sign up for a Skywarn class. The system could definitely use all the trained eyes it can get. Meeker County gets a fair amount of storms each year, so each individual provides a great service to it’s community.

Leaving the Kingston area, I continued following the west side of this cell as it moved through Meeker, Wright, and Carver Counties through the 4 and 5 PM hour. Made another stop for pictures at 4:55 PM in far northeastern McLeod County, a couple miles north of Winsted, MN. Incidentally, an EF-0 tornado touched down in this vicinity back on June 17th.

Photos from north of Winsted, MN looking east towards Watertown, MN (8 miles away). Two minutes after stopping, at 4:57 PM, spotters reported a tornado 3 miles west of Watertown. Again, I could not see this tornado from my vantage point. From what I could tell, the lowering to the right was merely scud as it appeared to be disconnected from the thunderstorm base. Can’t really speculate as to whether this was being reported as a tornado or not. Watching this for a few minutes, I didn’t see anything worthwhile to stick around for, so I hopped back into the car and met up with State Highway 7 south of Winsted.

Some more pictures taken along Highway 7 as the storm bared down on Waconia, Victoria, Chanhassen, and Chaska. The supercell started to really fall apart east of Mound and no longer posed much of a tornado threat by 5:45 PM. This is where I called off the chase.

Finally, I will leave you with some chase video I shot from my dash cam along Hwy 7 as seen streamed live on Severe Studios. Notice how many locals were out watching the storm. Overall, people handled themselves really well. Cars were parked on the side of the road and traffic was kept moving, albeit slow, since everyone was watching the sky, which I can understand. It sure beats hearing stories of chasers passing cars at 100 MPH and passing up inclines with an obstructed view of traffic heading towards them. Enjoy the video!

Miles: Approximately 350
Reports submitted: 0

RS

Slight risk for severe weather and tornadoes today over MN

There is a slight risk of severe weather today over Minnesota today.  The storms will primarily be affecting our area towards the late evening into the overnight.  Wind, hail, and even a small chance of a tornado or two is possible as indicated by the Storm Prediction Center below in their Saturday AM outlook.

Isolated severe storms have begun to pop over western MN this morning. Warnings have been issued near Willmar and Marshall for strong winds and hail.  One inch hail was reported 10 miles south of Marshall, MN around 7:45 AM.

Keep your eye to the sky today and if you have a NOAA Weather Radio (everyone should have them like a smoke detector), make sure  to turn on the tone alarm as another round of storms approach the Cities overnight.   More severe weather is possible on Sunday and then a greater chance of more significant weather rolls in for Wednesday. In between storms, it will be hot and muggy, so your best bet is to find water to stay cool.

RS

Where are all the tornadoes in Minnesota?

As we get deeper into the severe weather season, normally Minnesota would see twisters dance across the landscape and hopefully not causing damage or bodily harm.  The month of June sees the greatest frequency of tornadoes.  I know you’re asking, “Well if June see the most tornadoes, then where are they?”.  The answer is not simple, but we just haven’t seen the setup with a ton of moisture, heat, and veering of winds at the same time.  With the colder winter over the Gulf, that cooled the water temperatures and prevented much moisture from spreading north.  The effects of the horrible BP oil spill have been negligible on the weather, I believe, comparing the area of spill relative to the size of the Gulf of Mexico.

The latest date that Minnesota has seen a tornado is June 23rd, according to the fine folks at the National Weather Service and the State Climatology Office.  Don’t mean to put any jinxes on anybody or promote any kind of weather terrorism, but the state is overdue for a tornado to hit soon - perhaps within a month.

Breaking down the numbers, this is what I found about dates as it relates to when the first tornadoes strike the state looking at data between 1999 and 2009:

Year	First MN tornado
1999	6/5
2000	4/27
2001	5/1
2002	5/28
2003	5/14
2004	4/18
2005	3/30
2006	5/7
2007	5/23
2008	5/25
2009	6/17
Avg. Date (1999-2009)	5/12
Earliest (1999-2009)	3/30
Latest (1999-2009)	6/17
Latest Historical Date	6/23

March is the earliest month to see tornadoes.  Most of us that have been living in Minnesota for a while remember the Comfrey and St. Peter tornadoes in 1998 that hit on March 28.  Last year was the third latest on record for the first report.  The average start date between 1999 and 2009 happens to be in mid-May.

Could we be in store for another climatological record?  We will  know in a few short weeks.  It appears a more active pattern will be seen in the Midwest over the next week or two according to the forecast models.  There’s still quite a bit of uncertainty.  It’s difficult to predict what will happen more than 5 days out, I don’t care what anyone says.  These are just some stats you’ll start to hear about over the upcoming weeks.

RS

Uffda!

There is no other way to put it.  It’s hot.  Do yourself a favor and find a pool, lake, or the nearest Dairy Queen.  Summer…is…back (and so are my blog posts)!  After a stretch of rain and cooler weather over the last month, temperatures soared well into the 90’s across the Upper Midwest on Monday.  Thanks to the high dewpoints, the combination of heat and humidity triggered an excessive heat warning for the downtowns of Minneapolis and St. Paul during the sunlight hours on Monday.  A few cities set record highs including Minneapolis and St. Cloud in Minnesota, as well as Eau Claire, Wisconsin.  The map below illustrates the high temperatures for today.

The average high temperature for this time in May is in the low 70s, so we were well above normal.  This weather will stick around for much of the week with high temperatures in the 80s.  The atmosphere above us is capped, therefore thunderstorm chances will be slight.  If storms can overcome the cap, any development can be strong to severe Tuesday as cold front passes from the Dakotas. Any rain chance will be gone by Wednesday afternoon, but will return just in time for Memorial Day weekend holiday.  Stay cool!

RS

No weather

Well folks, it’s been pretty quiet in the weather department. Not much to speak of. Just as I expected going into the month of April, I had a hunch that it would be a dry month. The Minneapolis area and places north and east haven’t seen any significant snows since February. Also, we have been cutoff from any Gulf moisture making it’s way to the Midwest as a result of cooler ocean temperatures due to the colder and snowier winter in the south, and upper-level ridging that has taken place so far this year which has put a lid on the moisture return north for storm development.

Currently, the northeast MSP metro and northwest Wisconsin are experiencing slight to moderate drought conditions. If we don’t get significant rains soon, it will hurt planting season.

High Temperatures
	Mon 3/29	Tue 3/30	Wed 3/31	Thu 4/1	Fri 4/2	Sat 4/3
Fort Myers	71	72	73	81	84	85
Minneapolis	59	75	76	81	72	61

Minnesota is the new Florida? I recently returned from a trip to the sunshine state of Florida where the weather was absolutely perfect. Blue skies everyday and not a rain drop to be found. It was truly living in paradise for a week. Vacationing in Fort Myers, Florida, you would think that one of the most southern points of the country would be the warmest, right? Nope. During the middle of the week prior to Easter, it was actually warmer in Minneapolis than it was in Fort Myers. Maybe the Minnesota Twins should consider holding spring training here instead since out weather pattern seems to be so backwards lately?

Outlook. The forecast models are not showing any significant precipitation for the rest of the week, but we may see the rains return by the middle of next week. The work week will end with temps in the 60's, with 60's being the norm throughout the weekend.

Have a good weekend!

RS

From floods to drought?

As we come to the end of March, it's been potentially another record breaking month. Amazingly, the Twin Cities has not seen any snow this month. If this trend continues for MSP, it will be the first time in recorded history that no snow has fallen in March. Certainly this has helped with flooding, but now do farmers, and homeowners that appreciate green lawns, need to be concerned with the lack of water in the ground?



It's dry! The northern metro is already experiencing moderate drought conditions. As the spring green-up occurs and dead undergrowth becomes exposed to dry conditions, it could set the stage for wild brush fires. It is possible that somewhere in Minnesota a Red Flag Warning could be issued during a period in April. This warning is issued when there is a sustained wind average of 15 MPH or greater, a relative humidity less than or equal to 25 percent, and a temperature of greater than 75°F. Last spring, a brush fire started by a resident quickly got out of control in Shakopee that burned 100 acres in a four hour period on tax day, April 15th, 2009. The relative humidity was in the 10-15 percent range during the time of the fire. That's a value that exceeds deserts! Be careful with any burning this year. Better advice: Don't do it!




If you like thunderstorms, you may not like this news. With the lack of precip of any kind this month, this hasn't helped with moisture content at the surface to fuel thunderstorms. Moisture is one key component, along with instability, and differential heating to create a lift for the air. Checking the GFS long-range models, no major storm systems are in sight. The Climate Prediction Center is indicating in it's 30-day outlook that most of Minnesota has equal chances of above, below, or normal temperatures and precipitation. Southern Minnesota could be a little bit on the cooler side around Marshall and Worthington. These factors have given me a gut feeling that April will for the most part be dry. Perhaps May will be different. Each month is like it's own chapter in a climatology book.

This week's outlook. The newest late-night GFS forecast runs are hot off the presses, and it appears that the work week will be dry with a healthy dose of sunshine with above average temps in the high 40s and low 50s. On Saturday, a low-pressure system may trigger some snow flurries, or a slushy mix. It will be a close call as the rain/snow line hovers near.

Enjoy the week!

RS

Flood video of Minnesota River near Jordan, MN

Moving water from the Minnesota River over Carver County Road 11, 2 miles NNW of Jordan, MN.