Storms today will be mainly confined to the Northland, and Arrowhead regions of the state where a stalled frontal boundary is draped across the international border.
With temperatures well into the 90s across much of the state, and with dew points at or above 70 through the afternoon, there will be more than enough energy, or juice to initiate storms by the evening.
Tropical air and lifted indices approaching -10°C on the RAP model will more than support thunderstorms, and possibly super cells.
I believe storms will form over north central Minnesota, and then move east-southeast during the evening. Supercells will eventually build into a linear MCS as the day progresses.
The primary severe weather threats are wind and large hail. Winds will be out of the west at 500 mb, and at the southwest 850 mb. Had the winds been more southeast at 850 mb, I believe there would be a heightened risk of tornadoes. Powerful winds, as we saw in the Twin Cities, can cause low-end tornado-like damage.
Persons camping in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and along the North Shore will definitely need to keep an eye to the sky today. Unfortunately, these areas are isolated, and having means of receiving weather information can be difficult. This is why I always pack a weather radio that can run off AC power, batteries, and even hand cranking, as a last option. These storms will mean business today, and being caught outside far from shelter is a worst case scenario. Stay tuned for additional updates on Twitter and Facebook today!
A sharp cold front will move across Minnesota tonight into Thursday morning, which should trigger some good rains across the eastern half of Minnesota. As much of a half inch of rain is possible for the Twin Cities with up to an inch around Rochester from heavier storms.
There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms today along the cold front, but the concern is for far southeast Minnesota into west central Minnesota, noted in red below. Twin Cities should remain severe-free.
Tornadoes are possible this late in the year for Wisconsin, but an isolated risk for twisters exists from Rochester, and areas southeast.
Temperatures close to 95 degrees with dew points near 70 will create an unstable environment for thunderstorms to work with tonight.
A couple of the high-resolution models show storms initiating close to the Twin Cities during after the dinner hour going into the night.
The Storm Prediction Center is indicating a slight risk of severe thunderstorms for far southern Minnesota with wind and hail as the primary threats.
There may be brief periods of severe thunderstorms, but most of the activity should remain below severe limits as strong storms. Just something to keep an eye on for those getting an early start on 4th of July celebrations.
This week we said goodbye to March and hello to April. March 2012 was one of the warmest relative months I have ever experienced here in Minnesota. I could not remember the last time there was a stretch of 70 degree temperatures in March. We hit 80 on the 17th, which was the earliest date to record such a mark during the year.
It was a whopping 15.5 degrees above normal at MSP Airport, and warmest March on record. Pretty much the same story across the state with temps at least 10 degrees above normal everywhere.
The trend over the last 115 years indicates that the our Marches have indeed become warmer in Minnesota. Since 1895, the average temperature has increased nearly three degrees, or an increase of around a quarter-degree per decade. Is this cyclical or climate change? Honestly, I don’t know.
The warmth also brought strong storms to the area Monday as a low level jet interacted with a trough of low pressure. Hail was the primary concern with these storms into the night as they tracked across the southern Twin Cities metro.
I decided to venture out as the western most storm cell headed into Scott County and the Shakopee area.
All I saw out of this was some pea size hail, lightning, and much needed rainfall.
Most of the hail reports where below severe levels of one-inch, but one report from Burnsville indicated one-inch hail.
A more potent storm system took aim across the southern United States on Tuesday with a chance of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes.
Shortly after noon central time, a tornado watch was issued for the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) metroplex.
Between noon and 3 PM, DFW was under the gun for tornadic activity.
Radar summary of the supercells producing the tornadoes from that afternoon.
One of the most awe-inspiring images and video from this tornado outbreak was watching semi-truck trailers, upwards of 15,000 pounds (7.5 tons!), being tossed into the air like toys.
What is helping fuel these thunderstorms across the south is the warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, which are in the upper 70s and low 80s. With the mild winter, the Gulf of Mexico really did not have a chance to cool down. Under these conditions, moisture is very easily transported into the atmosphere.
Looking ahead to the remainder of April, much of the United States is expected to see above normal temperatures according to the Climate Prediction Center.
Temperatures in the Twin Cities are already running above average for the month. Back on April 2nd, we saw a low temperature that we typically see for a high temperature on that day!
As far as precipitation, we should be dry generally until the middle of the month. For the last several days, the GFS model has been hinting at significant rains around the 14th to 16th time frame. After this system moves through, new model guidance suggest that we will be in blocking pattern into the fourth week of April, keeping us dry.
In the short term, this weekend will be very nice. Some showers are possible around mid-day Saturday (as much as a tenth of an inch of rain), but Easter is looking mild and dry. Couldn’t ask for better weather on this holiday.
Happy Easter! Hope it’s a good one for you and your family.
Clouds and southeast winds on Saturday locked temperatures across much of Minnesota into the upper 40s and 50s. Where the sun did peak through in the southwestern part of the state, temperatures climbed into the low 60s. If we do see peaks of sun, which is looking slimmer and slimmer by the hour, we could get temps between 55-60. No sun means temps in the low 50s.
The possibility of 80 degree temperatures on Sunday has been in the conversation the last few days. Since it appears winds will stay from the southeast as opposed to the south with some clouds present in the afternoon, MSP and southeast Minnesota wouldn’t see the full benefit of the warmth. I tend to agree with the European solution on the temperature profiles for Sunday. Much of southern Minnesota will see 70s, with 80s not making a grand appearance.
There could be a few stronger storms as we head towards the end of the day Sunday into overnight Monday with a frontal passage. Storms with hail (“hailers”) will be possible, but the overall threat of severe storms is quite low. We just don’t have the instability present (lack of moisture) for an outbreak.
On Saturday, July 17, 2010, severe storms ripped through the central part of Minnesota with hail, strong winds, and a few reports of tornadoes. Severe weather was anticipated this day as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) had placed much of the southern half of Minnesota under a moderate risk of severe storms as early as Friday.
Theearly Saturday AM outlook from the SPC with the moderate (MDT) risk of severe storms outlined in red.
My initial chase target late Friday night/early Saturday morning was Benson, MN based on what the 4.0km WRF model was telling me. Storms started firing around the Alexandria and St. Cloud areas along I-94, north of a warm front, after the noon hour. It was a little surprising to see storms firing so early in the day and the proximity to the Twin Cities. That caught me off-guard a little bit with the differences in what the model data was telling me. This activity was east of what I felt were the greatest dynamics for tornadoes, so I asked myself how this could be happening. Going into Saturday morning, I expected to see storm development just east of the MN/ND/SD border sometime after 2 PM local time with movement to the east-southeast. Scraping my plans to head west, I began my trek up towards I-94 towards St. Cloud. Not long into my journey, a tornado watch was issued at around 12:30 PM until 8 PM, which included most of central MN. The watch got as close to the Cities as Wright Co., but a few of the immediate Twin Cities metro counties were added later as the watch boundaries were extended.
As I travelled towards the Albertville area on I-94, I started loosing confidence in this cell north and west of St. Cloud as it began to get so massive. Still north of I-94, this cell appeared to evolving into a heavy rain and hail producer with a funnel cloud report mixed in near Gull Lake around 12:45 PM. I’m not one who likes to sit underneath or punch into cores containing large hail. It damages your vehicle unnecessarily and jeopardizes my safety with the possibility of windows breaking and being injured by broken glass. Just don’t understand it, but that’s my prerogative, just as it is for those who drive or sit idle through it. How to chase is up to each individual. Digressing from that tangent - since these cells were outside of what I felt was the greatest dynamics for the possibility of a tornado, I decided to leave this cell and head back south and take US-12 out west to intercept some storms heading for Willmar. Based on CAPE values and wind shear, I took a gamble that these storms would intensify rapidly and possibly produce a tornado.
I caught up with some storms in Wright Co that I followed for an hour west to east from Cokato to near Buffalo before they died out. The storms near St. Cloud were still maintaining their intensity, so I decided to head north on Hwy 25 in Buffalo to check it out.
Cells near the I-94 corridor just before 2 PM producing large hail and heavy rains. (Image credit: Paul Huttner)
Around 2:30 PM, the St. Cloud storm was beginning to move south of I-94 and move in a southeasterly direction towards the Twin Cities as it picked up speed along the warm front that was slowly sagging to the south.
Storm cell at 2:39 PM with a hook near Sauk Centre on I-94. At this point, this cell would carry tornadic characteristics as it marched towards the Cities. (Image credit: Paul Huttner)
Made the decision to stay east of the cell and attempted to stay in front of it taking the State Highway 15 south exit on I-94 around 3:35-3:40 PM. The cell was tornado warned at 3:28 PM and heading in my direction. Greatest area of concern was around Eden Valley and Watkins. Attempting to cross in front of the cell so I could get in position on the backside of the cell before being dumped on with heavy rains in hail, I arrived near Kimball, MN around 3:45 PM.
Radar velocity scan of an area of rotation approaching the towns of Kimball and Kingston Township at about 3:45 PM. (Image credit: Paul Douglas)
Above are pictures taken from 3:44 to 3:46 PM from my phone inside the car near Kimball, MN looking north and west. It was a very mature supercell with strong updrafts and one report of 4.25” inch hail as it came through Sauk Center at 3:37 PM. Not a storm to be stuck standing in front of you.
Radar image at 4:16 PM when a tornado was reported southeast of Kingston Township (Image credit: Paul Huttner).
About a half hour later, I continued trekking south on Highway 15 through heavy rains, winds, and some pea to dime size hail as the activity moved through Kimball towards Kingston Township. Wanting to get out of the rain and get some photo opportunities I turned off onto a county road west of Kingston to spend some time with the Nikon camera.
These pictures were taken looking east from my position, which was just southwest of Kingston. As I began shooting pictures around 4:15 PM, a tornado was reported 2 miles southeast of town just a minute later. I could not locate the tornado from my position, but there definitely were a lot of low hanging clouds. In this high precipitation supercell, it was tough to get a clean look at much of anything this day. A local passed me by as I was taking pictures, and asked if I was a storm chaser and wanted to know what specifically is a wall cloud. I tried to explain to the best of my abilities without having a visual to show him and also not boring him with technical jargon. It’s nice to run into people that take an appreciation of the weather and want to learn more about it. Although I didn’t recommend it at the time, hopefully this person takes enough interest to sign up for a Skywarn class. The system could definitely use all the trained eyes it can get. Meeker County gets a fair amount of storms each year, so each individual provides a great service to it’s community.
Leaving the Kingston area, I continued following the west side of this cell as it moved through Meeker, Wright, and Carver Counties through the 4 and 5 PM hour. Made another stop for pictures at 4:55 PM in far northeastern McLeod County, a couple miles north of Winsted, MN. Incidentally, an EF-0 tornado touched down in this vicinity back on June 17th.
Photos from north of Winsted, MN looking east towards Watertown, MN (8 miles away). Two minutes after stopping, at 4:57 PM, spotters reported a tornado 3 miles west of Watertown. Again, I could not see this tornado from my vantage point. From what I could tell, the lowering to the right was merely scud as it appeared to be disconnected from the thunderstorm base. Can’t really speculate as to whether this was being reported as a tornado or not. Watching this for a few minutes, I didn’t see anything worthwhile to stick around for, so I hopped back into the car and met up with State Highway 7 south of Winsted.
Some more pictures taken along Highway 7 as the storm bared down on Waconia, Victoria, Chanhassen, and Chaska. The supercell started to really fall apart east of Mound and no longer posed much of a tornado threat by 5:45 PM. This is where I called off the chase.
Finally, I will leave you with some chase video I shot from my dash cam along Hwy 7 as seen streamed live on Severe Studios. Notice how many locals were out watching the storm. Overall, people handled themselves really well. Cars were parked on the side of the road and traffic was kept moving, albeit slow, since everyone was watching the sky, which I can understand. It sure beats hearing stories of chasers passing cars at 100 MPH and passing up inclines with an obstructed view of traffic heading towards them. Enjoy the video!
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