Historically cold

After going through the coldest December since 2000 in the Twin Cities, we thought the worst of it was over, right?  Nope.  The more things change (a new year), the more they stay the same.  As you may have already heard, some of the coldest air in two decades will make it’s way to the Upper Midwest on Sunday and Monday.  The Governor of Minnesota has already closed schools for the day across the state.

The 850 millibar maps early Monday morning show this surge of artic air from the polar region.

A closer look at 5,000 feet above sea level, shows the temperature of this cold pool of air approaching –30 degrees Celsius, which translates to –22 degrees Fahrenheit.

The European forecast model, which is my favorite in terms of accuracy, shows actual air temperatures anywhere from –20 to –30F to start the day Monday.

Now you throw in the wind, which will be sustained around 15 mph, with higher gusts throughout the morning, and we’re talking wind chill readings below –40F in the Twin Cities.  For that reason, a Wind Chill Warning has been issued for the entire state of Minnesota from Sunday night through mid-day Tuesday.  We may even see some parts of the state approaching the –60F mark at times, particularly across northern Minnesota.

Have we been spoiled by mid winters over the last 10-15 years?  Perhaps.  However, these kind of conditions are dangerous, and being outside should be avoided, period.  10 minutes is all it takes to receive frostbite, with effects that could be long-term if untreated immediately.

RS

How does this December cold stack up against previous years in the Twin Cities?

The month of December has felt like a one, two punch of cold and snow or snow and cold.  High temperatures have been running below average for a good portion of the month in the Twin Cities.  But how cold has it really been in December compared to other years?

Oddly enough, while it seems we have been shivering all month long, we have not seen anything in the way of record breaking temperatures.  Not even flirting with such extremes on either the high or low end of the spectrum.  Here are the daily high/low temperature records for December in the Twin Cities:

As of December 23rd, the average monthly temperature in the Twin Cities is 12.8 degrees.  That does not even crack the top 15 list for coldest Decembers on record.  Thirty years ago saw the coldest December in the metro  with an average temperature of just 3.7 degrees.  During that period, the Cities experienced ten consecutive days of temperatures 10 to 29 degrees below zero.  Now that’s cold!  Like they say, character-building weather.

So while it may seem extremely cold, according to the statistics, it has been a typical December.  One could argue we are just not use to it.  Like everyone else however, I am anxiously awaiting warmer weather!

RS

First taste of winter this season

The first snowfall of the season occurred during the morning hours of Sunday as a cold pool of arctic air dipped into the state, hovering primarily north of Interstate 94.  Upper air temps at 850 millibars were at or below zero Celsius, with a low pressure area near the Minnesota/Dakotas border.

By the mid-morning Sunday, the heaviest snow was located over central Minnesota.  St. Cloud was one of the locations affected.

As you might suspect, this is the area where the accumulating snow fell.  From the Brainerd Lakes area to the St. Croix River is where the snow band setup, in the vicinity of the low pressure area.

Askov was the Golden Shovel winner, coming in at five inches of snow.  One to three inches of snow was common elsewhere in central Minnesota.

The Twin Cities did not receive any official snow, but it certainly was a close call.  Had the low pressure area tracked further south, MSP would have been in line to see accumulating snows.  The last snow accumulation in the Twin Cities this year was a half inch on May 3, just one day after the infamous late season “Mayday” storm that impacted southeast Minnesota and western Wisconsin.  I do not think we will be able to dodge too many more bullets.  Whether we want to see it or not, snow will be here soon!

RS

Severe weather returns to Minnesota; storms will stay north of the Twin Cities

Severe weather returns to Minnesota after late June wind storms caused $17.8 million dollars worth of damage, and Xcel Energy called it the most significant power outage in the state’s history. 

Storms today will be mainly confined to the Northland, and Arrowhead regions of the state where a stalled frontal boundary is draped across the international border.

With temperatures well into the 90s across much of the state, and with dew points at or above 70 through the afternoon, there will be more than enough energy, or juice to initiate storms by the evening.

Tropical air and lifted indices approaching -10°C on the RAP model will more than support thunderstorms, and possibly super cells.

I believe storms will form over north central Minnesota, and then move east-southeast during the evening.  Supercells will eventually build into a linear MCS as the day progresses.

The primary severe weather threats are wind and large hail.  Winds will be out of the west at 500 mb, and at the southwest 850 mb.  Had the winds been more southeast at 850 mb, I believe there would be a heightened risk of tornadoes.  Powerful winds, as we saw in the Twin Cities, can cause low-end tornado-like damage.

Persons camping in the Boundary Waters Canoe Area and along the North Shore will definitely need to keep an eye to the sky today.  Unfortunately, these areas are isolated, and having means of receiving weather information can be difficult.  This is why I always pack a weather radio that can run off AC power, batteries, and even hand cranking, as a last option.  These storms will mean business today, and being caught outside far from shelter is a worst case scenario.  Stay tuned for additional updates on Twitter and Facebook today!

RS

Recapping Winter Storm “Mayday”

A historic late season snow storm is wrapping up across Minnesota.  It was an impressive storm for any time of the winter, but unbelievable for May.  Records were shattered as the storm dumped some of the highest snow totals ever recorded in the month of May anywhere in the state.  The state record for daily snow during May is one foot.  Many locations in southeast Minnesota set daily snowfall records for May 2nd.

Snow was triggered by cold air funneled in from the north and west behind a cold front, and enhanced along the jet stream flowing north to south across the state.  The heavy, wet, narrow band of snow snapped trees and power lines.  Had the snow band shifted 50 miles to the northwest, a greater portion of the Twin Cities would have shared in the brunt of the storm.  It was a challenging storm to predict snow totals as it is May after all, and the models were indicating the snow band would set up somewhere near or on top of the Twin Cities metro where 3 million people could be impacted.

The highest reported amount was 18 inches in Blooming Prairie.  An interesting note with this total is that it is not considered an official source, so it probably will not be included in the state record books.  According to the National Weather Service, “Only meteorological observations from weather stations that are recognized by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) as official (including Climate Reference Network, Community Collaborative Rain Hail and Snow Network, Historical Precipitation Network, Surface Observation Network and Cooperative Observation Network stations) are considered for state records.”  Therefore, Dodge Center will likely go into the record books as the state record at 15.4 inches once it is confirmed by the State Climatology Office.  Here is a look at some other totals from across the area:

Report Time (UTC)	Location	County	ST	Mag. (Inches)	Source
Thu May 2 16:45:00 CDT 2013	Blooming Prairie	Steele	MN	18.0	emergency mngr
Thu May 2 12:30:00 CDT 2013	2 E Owatonna	Steele	MN	15.5	public
Thu May 2 14:57:00 CDT 2013	2 NW Rochester	Olmsted	MN	15.5	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	1 WNW Dodge Center	Dodge	MN	15.4	coop observer
Thu May 2 19:40:00 CDT 2013	Zumbrota	Goodhue	MN	15.1	trained spotter
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	SW Ellendale	Steele	MN	15.0	cocorahs
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	SW Ellendale	Steele	MN	15.0	cocorahs
Thu May 2 16:45:00 CDT 2013	OAK Center	Wabasha	MN	15.0	public
Thu May 2 13:37:00 CDT 2013	Kasson	Dodge	MN	14.5	public
Thu May 2 14:50:00 CDT 2013	7 WSW Hayfield	Dodge	MN	14.0	public
Thu May 2 14:53:00 CDT 2013	2 N Oronoco	Olmsted	MN	14.0	public
Thu May 2 21:10:00 CDT 2013	1 S Maple Springs	Wabasha	MN	14.0	public
Fri May 3 00:12:00 CDT 2013	Grand Meadow	Mower	MN	14.0	public
Fri May 3 00:43:00 CDT 2013	4 W Simpson	Olmsted	MN	13.9	public
Thu May 2 12:52:00 CDT 2013	Kasson	Dodge	MN	13.5	public
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	4 SE RED Wing	Goodhue	MN	13.5	cocorahs
Thu May 2 16:30:00 CDT 2013	Pine Island	Goodhue	MN	13.5	public
Thu May 2 18:49:00 CDT 2013	Rochester Airport	Olmsted	MN	13.5	coop
Thu May 2 21:48:00 CDT 2013	Oronoco	Olmsted	MN	13.2	public
Thu May 2 09:45:00 CDT 2013	Owatonna	Steele	MN	13.0	trained spotter
Thu May 2 10:00:00 CDT 2013	4 SE RED Wing	Goodhue	MN	13.0	public
Thu May 2 12:17:00 CDT 2013	Kasson	Dodge	MN	13.0	public
Thu May 2 15:20:00 CDT 2013	2 NE Berne	Dodge	MN	13.0	public
Thu May 2 16:30:00 CDT 2013	SE RED Wing	Goodhue	MN	13.0	public
Thu May 2 17:00:00 CDT 2013	Rochester	Olmsted	MN	13.0	broadcast media
Thu May 2 18:06:00 CDT 2013	Claremont	Dodge	MN	13.0	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	2 SSE Claremont	Dodge	MN	12.8	cocorahs
Thu May 2 11:38:00 CDT 2013	2 NE Berne	Dodge	MN	12.5	public
Thu May 2 12:13:00 CDT 2013	2 SSE Claremont	Dodge	MN	12.5	public
Thu May 2 13:30:00 CDT 2013	3 NNW Nerstrand	Rice	MN	12.5	nws employee
Thu May 2 15:40:00 CDT 2013	1 S Maple Springs	Wabasha	MN	12.5	public
Thu May 2 16:55:00 CDT 2013	1 NW Rochester	Olmsted	MN	12.3	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	4 W Simpson	Olmsted	MN	12.1	coop observer
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	3 NE Stockholm	Wright	MN	12.0	cocorahs
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	Stockholm	Wright	MN	12.0	co-op observer
Thu May 2 10:53:00 CDT 2013	Conger	Freeborn	MN	11.5	public
Thu May 2 15:26:00 CDT 2013	Oronoco	Olmsted	MN	11.5	public
Thu May 2 16:11:00 CDT 2013	Eyota	Olmsted	MN	11.5	public
Thu May 2 18:04:00 CDT 2013	3 N Saint Charles	Winona	MN	11.5	public
Thu May 2 15:00:00 CDT 2013	4 WSW Ringe	Olmsted	MN	11.3	cocorahs
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	4 E Nerstrand	Goodhue	MN	11.2	cocorahs
Thu May 2 13:30:00 CDT 2013	E Owatonna	Steele	MN	11.1	cocorahs
Thu May 2 12:29:00 CDT 2013	Wells	Faribault	MN	11.0	public
Thu May 2 21:07:00 CDT 2013	3 SW Wykoff	Fillmore	MN	11.0	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	3 W Rochester	Olmsted	MN	10.8	cocorahs
Thu May 2 12:30:00 CDT 2013	4 SSW Zumbro Falls	Wabasha	MN	10.5	cocorahs
Thu May 2 19:01:00 CDT 2013	1 ENE Austin	Mower	MN	10.5	broadcast media
Thu May 2 10:29:00 CDT 2013	Albert LEA	Freeborn	MN	10.0	trained spotter
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	1 S Austin	Mower	MN	10.0	coop observer
Thu May 2 12:29:00 CDT 2013	Waseca	Waseca	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 12:29:00 CDT 2013	Bricelyn	Faribault	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 12:40:00 CDT 2013	2 SW Austin	Mower	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 12:57:00 CDT 2013	RED Wing	Goodhue	MN	10.0	trained spotter
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	Wells	Faribault	MN	10.0	cocorahs
Thu May 2 13:38:00 CDT 2013	1 NW Rochester	Olmsted	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 13:55:00 CDT 2013	2SW Austin	Mower	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 13:56:00 CDT 2013	Brownsdale	Mower	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 14:28:00 CDT 2013	1 W Oronoco	Olmsted	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 16:00:00 CDT 2013	4 SW Elba	Winona	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 16:35:00 CDT 2013	Plainview	Wabasha	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 16:44:00 CDT 2013	1 SSE Hammond	Wabasha	MN	10.0	public
Thu May 2 13:20:00 CDT 2013	3 NE Salem Corners	Olmsted	MN	9.8	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	2 SW Genoa	Olmsted	MN	9.6	coop observer
Thu May 2 14:31:00 CDT 2013	1 SE Rochester	Olmsted	MN	9.5	broadcast media
Thu May 2 10:45:00 CDT 2013	RED Wing	Goodhue	MN	9.3	trained spotter
Thu May 2 13:38:00 CDT 2013	Oronoco	Olmsted	MN	9.1	public
Thu May 2 08:32:00 CDT 2013	2 NE Berne	Dodge	MN	9.0	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	2 SE Mantorville	Dodge	MN	9.0	cocorahs
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	Waseca	Waseca	MN	9.0	co-op observer
Thu May 2 13:08:00 CDT 2013	OAK Center	Wabasha	MN	9.0	public
Thu May 2 14:29:00 CDT 2013	5 NNW Genoa	Olmsted	MN	9.0	public
Thu May 2 16:43:00 CDT 2013	5 S Kellogg	Wabasha	MN	9.0	public
Thu May 2 15:22:00 CDT 2013	1 SSE Adams	Mower	MN	8.5	public
Thu May 2 10:10:00 CDT 2013	Hastings	Dakota	MN	8.4	trained spotter
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	Zumbrota	Goodhue	MN	8.4	co-op observer
Thu May 2 10:54:00 CDT 2013	5 S Farmington	Dakota	MN	8.3	trained spotter
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	3 SSE Hampton	Dakota	MN	8.2	cocorahs
Thu May 2 13:13:00 CDT 2013	Cannon Falls	Goodhue	MN	8.2	co-op observer
Thu May 2 06:50:00 CDT 2013	Owatonna	Steele	MN	8.0	trained spotter
Thu May 2 10:10:00 CDT 2013	2 SE Cottage Grove	Washington	MN	8.0	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	4 N Stewartville	Olmsted	MN	8.0	asos
Thu May 2 12:02:00 CDT 2013	4 W Simpson	Olmsted	MN	8.0	public
Thu May 2 13:58:00 CDT 2013	5N ST Charles	Winona	MN	8.0	public
Thu May 2 17:24:00 CDT 2013	1 ENE Spring Valley	Fillmore	MN	8.0	public
Thu May 2 18:17:00 CDT 2013	Lewiston	Winona	MN	8.0	public
Thu May 2 22:13:00 CDT 2013	Chatfield	Fillmore	MN	8.0	public
Thu May 2 22:13:00 CDT 2013	Spring Valley	Fillmore	MN	8.0	public
Thu May 2 16:30:00 CDT 2013	Hastings	Dakota	MN	7.8	public
Thu May 2 11:47:00 CDT 2013	Oronoco	Olmsted	MN	7.7	public
Thu May 2 08:00:00 CDT 2013	5 N Kenyon	Goodhue	MN	7.5	trained spotter
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	2 N Viola	Olmsted	MN	7.4	coop observer
Thu May 2 23:40:00 CDT 2013	Lanesboro	Fillmore	MN	7.3	public
Thu May 2 09:42:00 CDT 2013	RED Wing	Goodhue	MN	7.2	trained spotter
Thu May 2 21:26:00 CDT 2013	1 ESE Peterson	Fillmore	MN	7.2	public
Thu May 2 09:54:00 CDT 2013	Mantorville	Dodge	MN	7.0	law enforcement
Thu May 2 11:30:00 CDT 2013	4 W Simpson	Olmsted	MN	7.0	public
Thu May 2 11:31:00 CDT 2013	4 W Simpson	Olmsted	MN	7.0	public
Thu May 2 11:37:00 CDT 2013	Austin	Mower	MN	7.0	law enforcement
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	Albert LEA	Freeborn	MN	7.0	co-op observer
Thu May 2 13:30:00 CDT 2013	Northfield	Rice	MN	6.8	trained spotter
Thu May 2 08:23:00 CDT 2013	Hastings	Dakota	MN	6.7	trained spotter
Thu May 2 11:46:00 CDT 2013	1 W Rochester	Olmsted	MN	6.5	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	3 E Spring Valley	Fillmore	MN	6.5	coop observer
Thu May 2 12:30:00 CDT 2013	1 SSE Theilman	Wabasha	MN	6.2	coop observer
Thu May 2 08:26:00 CDT 2013	Zumbrota	Goodhue	MN	6.0	co-op observer
Thu May 2 10:44:00 CDT 2013	Northfield	Rice	MN	6.0	public
Thu May 2 11:00:00 CDT 2013	3 NE Rochester	Olmsted	MN	6.0	cocorahs
Thu May 2 11:27:00 CDT 2013	Rochester	Olmsted	MN	6.0	public
Thu May 2 13:00:00 CDT 2013	1 S Lake City	Wabasha	MN	6.0	coop observer
Thu May 2 22:13:00 CDT 2013	Preston	Fillmore	MN	6.0	public
Thu May 2 12:00:00 CDT 2013	1 N Wabasha	Wabasha	MN	5.6	coop observer
Thu May 2 07:15:00 CDT 2013	1 N Hastings	Washington	MN	5.5	public
Thu May 2 17:35:00 CDT 2013	3 WNW Kellogg	Wabasha	MN	5.2	public
Thu May 2 05:30:00 CDT 2013	Owatonna	Steele	MN	5.0	trained spotter
Thu May 2 10:45:00 CDT 2013	4 SE Douglas	Olmsted	MN	5.0	broadcast media
Thu May 2 11:00:00 CDT 2013	Grand Meadow	Mower	MN	5.0	coop observer
Thu May 2 11:03:00 CDT 2013	Grand Meadow	Mower	MN	5.0	coop observer
Thu May 2 12:56:00 CDT 2013	Spring Valley	Fillmore	MN	5.0	public
Thu May 2 18:01:00 CDT 2013	1 ESE Peterson	Fillmore	MN	5.0	public

Ever wanted to see 15 inches of snow accumulate in just a couple minutes?  This video time lapse from Owatonna created by Kyle Schanus captures it.

Maybe we will finally turn the page in May and actually have a spring?  With the way 2013 has gone, anything can happen.  It truly has been a bizarre year already.  It seems over the last five years or so, the weather has bounced around from extremes and many records have been easily broken.  The snow and cold has kept severe thunderstorms to a minimum in the state, with just a handful of warnings so far.  We could be looking at a record low number of tornadoes statewide after having the highest total ever just three years ago.  A lot of comparisons have been made to 1965.  With all this precipitation, rivers are on the rise.  Could we be dealing with major flooding soon?  One thing is certain, the odds of seeing a May 6th tornado outbreak are pretty slim.

RS